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Jerry's Journal of 2009

03-20-09. Wow! Spring has sprung, or at least it's springing, for the inventory of Eichlers has taken a quick turn for the better.  As of today, our Eichler area now boasts 30 listings, about one-third of them showing up in the last week or so.  We've not seen the listing activity that normally happens just after the Super Bowl until now.  Perhaps the hesitancy and uncertainty caused by our economic situation to either sell or buy is beginning to wane, and so folks are getting on with their lives.  I think what we need now is to have that 30 number remain about the same, with several new listings appearing weekly, and the same or similar number of sales occurring as well. Everybody wins in that climate.  We'll see what happens.

It is rather unusal to have two of the outstanding Eichlers located on Stanford University grounds be listed at the same time, as happens today. And for those of you who may be new Eichler enthusiasts, you may be surprised to learn that there are over 100 Eichler homes located in the beautiful environs of the Stanford property.

Virtually all of the homes, several of which are shown in our book, Eichler Homes – Design for Living, are considerably larger than the homes found in the “normal” communities of Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, etc.  They are, however, recognizable Eichlers, through and through, with more square footage devoted to the home, in particular the living or “gathering” spaces.  They are usually set on the larger lots, more common at Stanford, and by now rather secluded by the mature landscaping.

While I have not yet seen the home on Frenchmans Road, it likely benefits from the mature landscaping as well.   Frank Lloyd Wright fans and devotees will probably recognize the address, for the famous “Hana House” of the world renown architect is located on Frenchmans Road as well.  715 Frenchmans Road is in very good company.

02-16-09. It's been a little wet as of late, but the activity that we expect to happen after the Super Bowl does seem to be beginning.  My Eichler Market Data posting of February 8th showed the lowest number of transactions for the last 6 months that I can ever recall - 56, less than 10 a month.  Last week the inventory began to build, and the sales that did occur should make potential home sellers feel better.  The list prices were in general, prices that we were accustomed to last year, and several of the new listings did sell promptly.  There are, as always, areas -locations - where the activity is not as rapid, but that always seems to be the case.  As mentioned previously, the total spring activity around here will be interesting, and telling to observe.

02-02-09. Well, the Super Bowl is over, so let's let the real estate games begin!  Let's hope that will be the case before long.  I'll try to compare and contrast our spring real estate season with those of the past couple of years, and see what differences will be occuring.  Should be interesting - and telling.

Those of you that have been following my brief notes regarding the "2-story lower level" Eichler remodel in Monte Sereno are in for much more of a treat, now that Bryan and Jo-Anne have posed a very interesting and visually graphic site/blog on their unique project.  The address is www.EichlerVision.com, and among the General Contractor role duties that Bryan has undertaken, he has also made time to author this great site.

This past weekend Bryan and Jo-Anne hosed not an Open House, but an "Open Hole" gathering for neighbors, friends, and interested parties, and once again it was amazing to visit and sense the scope and enormity of what they have undertaken.  Do visit his website, and you will be able to see for yourselves what I mean.  I know you will be following the progress of the "2-story lower level Eichler" from now on.

01-26-09. One week to go to Super Bowl Sunday, and as mentioned many times before, one week to go before the spring real estate season really begins.  I must say that all things considered, in particular our country’s financial mess, our Eichler listing and sale activity has been about what one expects during this seasonally slow time.  3 new listings and 3 pending sales during the last 8-10 days would be the envy of most real estate markets, micro or otherwise.

I just learned of some re-financing activity that is now occuring in Eichlerdom.  It provides some hard evidence that economic events such as we are experiencing today provide difficulties for some, and opportunities for others.  Sufficient equity and proper FICO credit scores are enabling 30year fixed re-financing in the high 4% ranges.  My goodness, that takes us back to post World War II rates!  Until next time.

01-19-09. Two new listings, one in San Jose and one in Los Altos; Snowberry now is closed.

01-12-09. Jerry is out on holiday at this time, but here is the market update for this week.  We have 12 Active Eichlers with an additional 8 Pending, a strong signal of balanced demand.  The “unseasonably” warm weather has drawn out some buyers to look at homes, like a groundhog looking for his shadow.  No, it’s not an early Spring, but it is a welcome relief from the typical winter weather (and real estate doldrums). 

01-05-09. No commentary this time for the Eichler Market update.  However, after having spent the greater part of 15 years working with Eichlers, it is a bit difficult to “hang it up”, stop living with them and the marketplace, and just ignore what I’ve been involved in for some time. So from time to time I’m going to offer some thoughts and perspectives I’ve developed over the years in these “musings”, and hope it provides further insight – “Eichler Insight” – for those of you that have interests in these historic homes.  If these thoughts prompt further views or questions from you, don’t hesitate to either send an email to us or share them with us by leaving a comment in one of the post.

Happy New Year to one and all

Happy New Year to one and all, and once again welcome to the new site / blog of Eichler Homes and the MESH Network.  As is the case with all new sites it may take a time or two to become accustomed to the new and much more flexible format, but I know you will find it worthwhile.  Click away, and enjoy the work that Mark and Sabrina have put into our new endeavor.  We all would certainly enjoy hearing from you about the site, and of course now is very easy for you to offer your comments.

        Here's to a better 2009!

        Jerry Ditto

Jerry's Journal of 2008

December 29, 2008. - - - 2 new listings were posted during my hiatus, 1 in San Jose and 1 in San Mateo. 1 sale was reported in the San Mateo Highlands.

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There are now 11 Eichler homes currently on the market in the Bay Area. They range in price from $519,000 in Palo Alto, to $1,499,000 in Palo Alto. 1 is in Cupertino, 3 are in Palo Alto, 3 are in the San Mateo Highlands, 1 is in San Mateo, 1 is in Sunnyvale, and 2 are in San Jose.

12-29-08. Back in the saddle to a bit of activity during the holiday. As mentioned early this month, the market activity on my Eichler Market Data page got down into the 60's - 66 to be exact - and will probably stay around that area for a month or so. Typical.

As mentioned last week, I'm happy to announce that I have formed a new relationship with a very active and capable team of realtors, so that Eichler enthusiasts and home sellers can continue to benefit from the activities and history of Eichler Homes Realty - now infused with new energy and talent. Mark Easterday and Sabrina Huang, of the MESH Network, Eichler owners and enthusiasts of "prime order", will bring new and fresh efforts to "the cause". You'll soon see a new and improved website / blog, that will add a much more informative service to our readers. And of course you will have a new team of informed and dedicated realtors to assist you in your real estate needs. 2009 should be a very interesting "real estate year", and our new association should make it even more so - for all of us!

12-22-08. We're winding up the year with a bit of sales activity that is bringing our inventory down close to single digits. Only a couple more sales - with no listings - and we'll accomplish that. I'm sure you will see that occur during the month of January, and that usually is a good sign or precursor of a very active spring listing and sales season.

Have a great holiday week, and a very, very Merry Christmas! I'll have some rather exciting news regarding the future of Eichler Homes Realty and yours truly next week. See you then!

12-15-08. Mid-December, and our slow market continues. A week ago I reported 1 new listing, and 1 sale. This past week there was 1 sale, and no new listings. Typical.

Progress continues well on the "2-story Lower Level" Eichler being built in Silicon Valley. The sizable concrete piers have been sunk, piping for aspects of the geothermal heating/cooling system are in place, and one enormous hole for the lower level has been dug. As I recall, some 140 truckloads full of 18 yards of good ole'adobe soil have been removed. It is an enormous, virtually lot-line to lot-line hole. Two walls remain, which has made for an interesting excavation! It appears that all is on schedule. I'll continue with brief updates periodically.

12-8-08. The weather is turning cool, as is our marketplace. We did enjoy 1 new listings occurring last week, as well as a new sale. It was a good example of a property, priced well, with a sale occurring in a couple of weeks. Not bad in this market. If you wish to draw a conclusion based on one property, that home was priced about 10% lower than similar properties sold earlier in the year. As I have mentioned before, during the last real estate downturn during the bubble bursting in Silicon Valley, the average home in our Eichler marketplace sold for about 10-12% less than levels before the burst. Folks that bought at that time are happy they did - yes, even now.

12-1-08. We've entered the last month of this very testy year, continuing the rather slow pace of recent weeks. Note that the Eichler Market Data page indicates the total transactions for the last 6 months number 76. That's the lowest number I recall occurring for a very long time. And, it will very likely go into the 60's before the year is out. I suppose the "proof of the pudding" will be what happens in our marketplace come about February of next year. As you likely recall, that is the time when the active spring real estate season gets going around here, and it will be interesting to see what home sellers and home buyers do then.

11-24-08. Another slow week in Eichlerdom - as in the rest of the real estate market - but check the Eichler Market Data page, and you'll see that about 20% of our inventory sold last week. Selling 4 out of about 20 homes would be the envy of many markets, micro market or not. We're now at the time when you can really expect not too much to be happening in our marketplace. Between the lousy economy, horrible financial mess, and now simple seasonality, not much will be happening until early spring of next year. If you are a homebuyer, look at some of these prices. I really doubt that you will be seeing our market place suffer much more. The modest price reductions that have been occurring are resulting in rather quick sales.

11-17-08. A bit of activity occurred over the weekend with a couple of sales, and as you see above a couple of price reductions. No question about it - these are very strange and testy financial times. Politicos and governmental officials have never seen anything quite like it - nor have I. All things considered, if history is any guide, patience and persistence will pay off here in Silicon Valley.

11-10-08. Little activity again, other than the media's attempt to "inform." For those of you that take the S F Chronicle, I'm sure that the inner front-page headline in Sunday's edition, "Zip Code Guide to Lost Wealth" really grabbed your attention - as was intended. Hopefully you read the article from staff writer Carolyn Said very carefully, because if you didn't it could be quite misleading. While the methodology to come up with the statistics upon which the article was based was an attempt to "inform" with limited numbers of real estate transactions, from my perspective it is far more misleading than informative.

One has to be careful with sales price per square foot comparisons from one period of time to another like period, in particular in an area the size of a 5-digit zip code. Sales price per square foot comparisons within a zip code can vary quite substantially during any period of time, and when one compares such statistics to another period, like or not, it can be apples and oranges - or worse.

I can assure you that such was the case in the Palo Alto zip code 94303, a sizable Eichler area, where Ms. Said stats indicated that year over year comparisons accounted for a 57.2% loss in value, this year versus last year. That would mean that, on average, an Eichler that sold between July and October for at least $1,000,000 last year (there were more than a few), sold for $428,000 this year. If you really think that was the case, as the saying goes, "I have a bridge - - -." Seriously, just take a quick look at my Eichler Market Data page, and focus on Palo Alto sales from July to October this year. The numbers speak for themselves.

11-3-08. Much the same to report this first Monday in November as was mentioned last week. 'Tis a very slow time in the real estate business. As I completed the Eichler Market Data page this past weekend, listing the 2 new listings posted during the week, and the 1 sale, (that's all!), it was interesting to note the comparison of the 2 new listings. The home in San Jose was listed for $490,000, and the one in Los Altos was listed for $2,295,000. There are considerable differences in most aspects of the homes, notably square footage, lot size, and of course location, which of course accounts for the pricing disparity. But it also brought to my attention the success of Joe Eichler's contribution to mid-century modern architectural acceptance. Same architects, same post and beam building system, and same material concepts were used in both of those homes, but the Los Altos home was built about 15 years later. Inflation - sure, location - absolutely, size et al - sure - but the understanding and acceptance of classic contemporary architecture must have made Joe quite proud.

10-27-08. The activity of both listing and selling still remains minimal in Eichlerdom. An occasional new listing occurs, and then an occasional sale. Folks that have their homes on the market are still harkening back to the not too distant past, and when listing at those past prices, they are usually feeling the effects of this lousy market. If the economic uncertainty continues to persist, and at this point not much points to clarity, I think we may be looking at several months of the same relative lack of real estate activity. You expect this to occur about Thanksgiving, not now!

10-21-08. No question about it now. I would say that the "Pause" I refered to last week, really marks the timing of the impact that the financial fiasco has had on our particular real estate market. Absolutely nothing occured during the few days I took off, other than a couple of price reductions. Perhaps the "Mexican standoff" that has been effect between sellers and buyers is beginning to soften, and that of course is indicative of how our market is reacting to our real estate market. You may be interested to know that, in general, the drop in home values that occured during the last time the tech bubble burst in 2001, in my Eichler marketplace i.e., was no more than 12%, plus or minus a couple "percents", depending on the area. That hasn't happened this time, at least as yet.

10-13-08. The "Pause" button on the remote, as well as on our marketplace has been in great use this past week, and of course it's no wonder. The financial state of affairs in this country as well as around the world has left everybody wondering what will stop the carnage, and when, and it's no wonder that house listings and sales have taken a back seat. I'm writing this after the U.S. stock market has closed, up 940 points on the DOW, so maybe, just maybe, those markets may be regaining some sense of reason. We'll see, and in the meantime, be watching activity in Eichlerdom.

10-6-08. Not too much happening in Eichlerdom at the moment, at least in comparison to past fall periods at this time. I suppose that other areas would be more than happy to report a couple of sales and a like number of new listings during the past week - which is what we enjoyed last week. And as mentioned last week, the financial mess this country - and beyond - is experiencing, likely contributes to our relative slowdown. Time to take a deep breath!

9-29-08. The financial market mess still continues. I've been around longer than most of you, and I've never seen anything like it. It gives one great confidence in our governmental and financial leaders doesn't it! Nevertheless, back in silicon valley, we still enjoyed a couple of sales and a new listing in Eichlerdom last week. We also saw some price reductions from home sellers, which is part and parcel of a normal marketplace.

A quick note about the progress of the unique Eichler basement remodel first mentioned in my 8-25-08 Summary below. The "deconstruction" has begun, with a particular eye towards minimizing construction "waste", saving and utilizing much of the current "old" materials. For example, the existing tongue-and-groove redwood roof decking, and the sizable structural- grade Douglas Fir beams have been saved, and will be re-milled for use in the new structure. The owners chose to pursue LEED certification for this project, so, in addition to energy and environmental efficiencies obtained through this "re-cycling" of materials, the remodel will incorporate innovative building materials such as hollow-core concrete panels, and SIP's (structural integrated panels). Energy savings will result from photo-voltaic solar panels as well as geothermal heat exchangers. All in all, it is not only a very unique undertaking and structure, it is a very "green" one as well.

In the future, I think I'll refer to this home as a "2-story, lower level Eichler." The term "basement" really doesn't do the home justice, for it conjures up enclosed, even dark spaces, and that simply isn't the case here. The open entry atrium, as seen from the lower level, brings marvelous light and the "open to the sky" feelings one has in such spaces. Such is not the case in basements!

I'll be back to you in about a month or so with another update.

9-22-08. The financial market mess has undoubtedly caused some misgivings among home buyers, even here in silicon valley. Nevertheless, In spite of all this, we still enjoyed 3 sales occuring in Eichlerdom. By the way, the Eichler home tour that occured in Palo Alto a couple of weeks ago, brought out over 500 people, anxious to see what those particular homes were all about. A great turnout, and at $40 a pop, a very nice contribution was generated for the Peninsula Habitat for Humanity cause. Congratulations to the organizers!

9-15-08. Wow! A flurry of listing activity last week, in particular in Palo Alto, doubled the number of active listings - from 9 to 18. That's what was supposed to happen with the seasonallity of new listings, and it finally did. The new listings included some absolutely gorgeous homes with fitting upgrades, and of course some prices to go along with them. Prices are holding up quite well, in particular in Palo Alto, where it is now very difficult to find an Eichler under $1,000,000. Sensational Silicon Valley!

9-8-08. The headline this past weekend of the Real Estate section of the S F Chronicle was "A Level Playing Field." That pretty well says it, in that our market has essentially returned to a "willing seller / willing buyer" one. This past week in our Eichler market reflects that. In addition to price reductions occuring, and listings being withdrawn, we had 3 properties that found their "willing seller, willing buyer", and were sold - at least with a "Pending Sale." Now listings in my marketplace have hit the single digits - 9. It hasn't been that low since early July of this year.

9-2-08. Labor Day has come and gone, and the fall real estate season now begins. Not much of anything happened during the long weekend, and we should begin to see a bit of activity shortly, probably about the same level that we enjoyed during the late spring. Not like the rip roaring stuff we saw in a few years ago, but hopefully more activity than the last couple of months. Don't forget the Eichler home tour which will be held next Saturday, the 6th. It will begin at the Eichler Swim & Tennis Club at 3530 Louis Road in Palo Alto at 10:00AM and continue until 4:00PM. It should be interesting to see what Eichler owners have done to their homes, and for those that hope to be owners to see various ways to upgrade these classic homes.

8-25-08. A rather noteworthy event in Eichlerdom occured during this slow and somewhat boring summer real estate season, and I was happy to play a small - very small - part in its happening. What occured was a full-blown approval of an Eichler remodel that, to my knowledge, has never happened before. Sure, there have been many, many remodels performed in Eichlerdom, some great and some not-so-great, but I have a feeling that this one will be a forerunner of a new approach that could start a wave, albeit small, of similar remodels to come.

I'll be providing more details during the coming months as the construction continues, but let me give you a quick summary preview now. This remodel will more than double the square footage of the home, and will retain the Eichler architectural idiom in both materials and style throughout. The atrium will remain, but it will also be open to the second level below! Yes, while the elevations are truly a classic Claude Oakland design - front, rear and side views - of a single story home, it will become an Eichler with a full basement, with bright space and new amenities that are seldom found in remodeled homes.

For those folks who love their Eichler, really love their neighborhoods and hate to move, but could use a lot more space and updating, it is a very, very creative solution. Again, I'll keep you updated on it's progress as the construction continues. 

8-18-08 The Olympics must be occupying a lot of attention and time from home buyers and sellers, for another week passed without much activity.  That will likely be the case for the next 2 or 3 weeks, and then the post-Labor Day real estate season will begin - a usually more active time.  Speaking of that, a well-organized Eichler home tour will be held in Palo Alto on Saturday, September 6th, beginning at the Eichler Swim & Tennis Club , at 3530 Louis Road, from 10:00 to 4:00PM.  Donations of $40 will be accepted benefiting the Peninsula Habitat for Humanity, and of course would be welcome.  12 beautiful Eichlers will be on tour in that fair city, and I was privileged to see one that has undergone a a fabulous, taseful remodel.  Joe Eichler would love it! 

I was asked to provide some old sales brochures from a few of the early developments in Palo Alto - Greer Park, Fairmeadow, Garland Park, Greenmeadow, et al,- for the tour, and of course I was happy to go into my archives of old Eichler material to do so. If you take the time to review any of them, you'll get a kick out of seeing the $18,000 price tag for the homes at that time. Yep - $18,000!

8-12-08. I just finished updating the Eichler Market Data page - a bit later than usual - and 'twas interesting to see just how the market is "unveiled" when you look at the data. In times like these, typically, potential home sellers are reacting to the barrage in the media about the market, and if selling their home is an option, they will wait until they perceive the timing to be better. So, in addition to a normally slow seasonal market, it can become slower with fewer listings, and when they do come on - correctly priced - they go in a hurry. That's what the data tells me anyway.

8-4-08. Back from a little trip to much the same that I left!  Business wise, that is!  Not unusual for this time of year.  As mentioned last week, and many times before in this summary "column", we are very fortunate to be living in silicon valley.  The national real estate difficulties are certainly still with us, and it appears that it may continue for a long time to come.  While the effects are being felt around here to a degree, the real estate market while tempered is still a relatively healthy one.

7-21-08. We live, many of us, in a lovely, great part of the bay area, that has many benefits including real estate values.  Reading newspaper headlines reminds me of this a lot!  Last Friday's S F Chronicle's headline read "Bay Area Home Prices Plunge 27%. That certainly gets your attention, but when you read further you understand. The Chronicle's "Bay Area" includes 9 counties, including those a long way from Silicon Valley. And unfortunately for those folks have been hit quite hard by sub-prime problems, et al, that headline is correct. Our area, in particular the majority of Eichler areas in our valley has suffered very little, if at all, depending on the community. Always remember, like politics, real estate is local - very local, like 9 digit zip code local and beyond!

7-14-08. Single digits quickly doubled - almost - so we're once again back to listings in the teens.  Most of those new ones were in Palo Alto, which, as I've mentioned to others, continues to defy gravity in our real estate market.  Little else to review.  Have a good week with this cooler weather.

7-7-08. We're down to single digits for the first time this year, in listings that is, - 9 - , and the majority of those have been around awhile.  Long time readers of this "summary" won't find that too surprising, for this is the time of year that things slow down normally with vacations et al, and given the "national malaise" in the real estate market, that likely has an effect as well. Time to "stay cool" in several ways-  it's supposed to be a very warm week around here!

6-30-08.Well, the stock market didn't do so well during the month of June, but our Eichler market didn't do that badly.  Even during our slow summer season, activity during the month of June was fairly active.  We ended the month of May with 19 listings, and I just posted last weekend's activity above, that leaves us with 12 active listings as we leave June. Not bad, not bad at all.

6-23-08. Wow! - that was a hot one wasn't hit - last Saturday, that is.  Fortunately for all of us, that kind of weather doesn't happen very often around here.  Another "cooler" subject.  You all -  home owners, home buyers and Eichler aficionados will I think find the offerings of a Santa Monica art gallery,Terrence Rogers / Fine Art of considerable interest.  They are now showing the paintings of photorealist artist Danny Heller of several Eichler homes and areas.   They are, as expected, quite realistic and beautifully done.  They represent several models that were done in the early 1960's that are found in the 3 areas of southern California - the city of Orange, Granada Hills, and Northridge.  Go to the art gallery's website, www.trogart.com, and then click on "Eichlers."  Think you'll enjoy seeing them, and who knows, you may even wish to buy one!

6-16-08. The listings are fewer in number this Monday versus last - 14 versus 17 - and the sales remain fairly fluid.  I think that there are lot of home buyers essentially "on the fence", hoping for either lower home prices or lower interest rates.  I'm not so sure that we're going to find both of those going in tandem.  Our Eichler prices seem stable for the most part, and interest rates, if anything, seem to be drifting higher.  As usual, the better part of valour is once "the" home is found, it's best to bite the bullet around here.

6-9-08. The weather feels a bit more summerlike today, and the Eichler real estate market feels that way too. The inventory is certainly coming down a bit, with 6 pending sales happening last week, and only 3 new listings posted, so we begin the week with only 17 listings. Regardless of what you may read or be hearing, our marketplace is still quite fluid. For example, of these 17 current listings, 15 of them have been on the market -"DOM" - for only 21 days. The other 2 have been around awhile, averaging 161 days on the market. Again, as mentioned before, our area is to me envied in many ways!

6-2-08. If history holds true, real estate "things" in silicon valley will slow up a bit, now that we've gone by Memorial Day, and begun our summer months.  It is of course a bit slower this year anyway, given the state of the national real estate market, and the perception that brings.  When updating the Eichler Market Data page this weekend I noted that the number of listings for the last 6 month period are up about 15-16% over the same period of 2007.  There are 96 listings as of June 1, 2008 - there were 83 as of June 4, 2007.  The "DOM", or days on the market are obviously up versus last year, but again, most parts of the country would be very envious of our market and activity.

5-28-08. No commentary this time.

5-19-08. Another active week last week with 10 new listings posted in the areas I cover, and 6 new sales. I think silicon valley is really beginning to discount national real estate news - somewhat depressing - and once again realize where we live.  An interesting email from Zillow last week - the service that essentially covers the U.S., showing sales, at least "average" sales results, among other things.  Their data indicates that contrary to many reports you see, much of the bay area reported average sales increases during the first part of this year. The average increase in sales prices for the following areas were Cupertino - 7.0%, Los Altos - 3.2%, Mountain View - 1.1%, San Jose minus 9.6%, Saratoga - 4.4%, and Sunnyvale - 2.9%.  Palo Alto was not listed, and of course, all of those numbers were averages, averaging all zip codes. (Remember the importance of 9 digit zip codes!) In any event, a lot of the country would very much like to have those results for that period of time.

5-12-08. We finished a relatively active week in Eichlerdom last week, with 6 new listings posted and 4 sales reported.  Even though a comparison with the past few years is inevitable, the listing and sales activity can really be described as having returned to "normalcy".  In other words, while it has been nice for home sellers to have sold their home in 8 or 10 days, returing to the more "normal" days on the market of severak weeks or a few months before a sale is transacted is happening.  Listing periods of 90 days or 6 months has been the common length of time for listing periods - for good reason. That has been and probably always will be the norm, for it has historically taken that time.  Yes, silicon valley has been an exception, and certain areas defy the "norm", but in general a "return to the norm" is likely very healthy.

5-5-08. I did the same thing this week as last, and scrolled back to my commentary of 1 year ago.  Interesting The number of listings that have sold and closed this year versus last, is about 20% off of last year - 26 vs. 33, and of course the sales have softened a bit in most areas.  Palo Alto continues to hold up very well, with multiple offers still the order of the day usually, and over list price offers dominating.  While there have been over or at list price sales in other areas, many have been at reduced prices from list (some list prices were way to aggressive for the property), but in general those average sales prices were no more than 10% from the original list price.  Not bad at all in a market with all the negative press.

4-28-08. If you scroll back and review the comments I made in this Summary section last year, about this time, you'll see that the inventory this year is running about 50% higher than it was last year, roughly 18 to 20, versus 10 to 12, and as you would expect, sales have slowed a bit but not all that much. All in all our marketplace has generally escaped the difficulties of the broader real estate market.  Home sellers should be pretty happy, and home buyers should take note!

4-21-08. Again, little to comment on today.  We have what appears to be the beginning of the proverbial "Mexican stand-off"  -  many home sellers standing firm on their list prices, a few price decreases, and every now and then a price increase.  And of course, home buyers standing firm, or as more often the case, waiting - waiting for prices to soften.  As mentioned last week, that is very much the sign of a market returning to normal, with eventual sales prices usually still to the advantage of the seller.

4-14-08. Very little to report or discuss on this Monday.  "Average" listings, if there are such things, in less than prime locations are remaining on the market longer, and "Above average" listings, in prime locations are being sold in much the same time - rapidly - as in the recent past.  Home sellers are for the most part realizing that the several weeks, or a few months that it used to take in "normal" times have returned.  That timing would be viewed as terrific in many parts of our country.

4-7-08. I just finished posting the data on the Eichler Market Data page, and of the 5 new listings entered, 4 of them are priced over $1,000,000.  5 pending sales were entered as well.  The Eichler marketplace in silicon valley seems very alive and well.

3-31-08. I'm not sure whether to characterize March's departure as a lamb or a lion, but it's over. I hope a warmer spring is about to begin.  Alain Pinel Realtors, a local and well respected real estate brokerage has a fairly recent, informational advertising program, in which they provide the lay person with good, factual, well sourced information about the local real estate market. A recent example was a newspaper ad with the headline, "92.7% Current".  It reads as follows: We bet you've never seen this headline in any recent media coverage of the real estate market.  Yet it is fact - 92.7% of all mortgages in the United States are current.  What's more, the "sub-prime mortgage crisis" refers to a tiny portion of sub-prime mortgages.  Sub- prime mortgages represent only a fraction of all mortgages - and the vast majority of these are current.

It goes on further to point out that13.2 percent of U.S. mortgages are of the sub-prime variety, and of those 13.2%, 76.8% of those are current. Do the math - that means that only slightly over 3% of sub-prime mortgages are not current.

As has been said, "... crises may sell newspapers", but this firm and others attempt to bring market realities to the lay person.  Remember, like politics, all real estate is local!

3-24-08. Over the weekend, I was finally able to report some sales prices on those homes that had sold over the slower winter season, and finally closed escrow this year.  You'll find that in the Eichler Market Data section of this site. Of the 6 homes in this category, 3 homes sold over list price - 2 in Palo Alto and 1 in Sunnyvale, and 3 sold at prices less than list price - 1 each in San Jose, San Mateo and Sunnyvale.  Interesting, but hardly enough data to determine much of anything!

3-17-08. Well we're finally getting into some spring activity - regardless of what the papers lead you to believe. 5 sales were reported last week for example and 3 new listings were posted as well.  Days on the market are growing a bit, but all in all Eichlerdom in general is quite healty, with different zip codes  exhibiting their normal activity and differentials.

3-10-08. Back from a quick trip to find a bit of activity with 3 sales reported over the weekend.  Interesting, to me in that they were recent listings, priced well.  That folks is the the secret of real estate sales. And during the week it does appear that spring may have sprung, with 6 new listings and 6 sales reported, including today.

    

3-3-08. Well, maybe the more active spring activity is beginning. There were 5 new listings posted last week, and a couple of the older ones found a buyer. I just posted another new listing this morning so, again, maybe what normally happens in early February is beginning to happen in March this year. As I was updating the Eichler Market Data page this weekend, it was interesting to note that of the 5 transactions that "rolled" off the page of the rolling 6 month data, all 5 were properties that sold with multiple offers, and sold over list price. Those escrows closed virtually exactly 6 months ago in late August. If you're following my commentary, that is not exactly what is happening in our marketplace in late February / early March.

As you probably saw above, or on the home page or others, this is essentially the last year of my active life with Eichler Homes Realty, but as mentioned, I'll continue with the daily updates and weekly commentary.  I enjoy staying up with what's happening.  Thanks for the nice comments!

1-25-08. Not a great deal of consequence to talk about.  It appears that I could repeat last weeks comments, and virtually all would be appropo.  I plan to announce a bit of a change, a transition of Eichler Homes Realty and yours truly in these website pages during the week.  It seems to be about time to do so!  You'll see more detail by this time next week.

2-18-08. The new listings are coming, albeit rather slowly, but the sales are coming a bit slower.  As mentioned last week, I'll give it a couple more weeks to get a better feeling/flavor of our marketplace, but as of this writing, the national real estate malaise may certainly be hitting here as well.  Some numbers, along with those feelings:  As of today, DOM, i.e. "Days on the Market" - an indicator of the real estate marketplace - of our 21 Eichler listings averages 67 days. When I exclude the two extremes, highest and lowest number of days, it still averages 59.  Most areas of the country would be delighted to have that 2 month number describe their areas.  Around here however, at least for the past 2 or 3 years, 2 months before a sale would be viewed as an eternity.

2-11-08. Well - - - - - -  as I said, let the games begin!  It appears we're off to a little slower start than past years, and perhaps the perception of a slower economy may be working, but we'll see.  I'll give it 2 or 3 more weeks to give us a better feel for our normally busy spring season.

2-4-08. The Super Bowl is over (what a game!), so let the real estate games begin!  It appears that they already have to a large extent, with the inventory today already totaling 20 homes.  Most have been around awhile, and it's likely that that number will begin to increase rather significantly.  At least that is my considered guess! Recent price reductions have not seemed to generate instant sales, so that could be a sign of further softening.  Stand by!

1-28-08. It should be an interesting spring selling season.  When the rains subside, the sun appears and stays out, and the Super Bowl is history, at the rate we're going we're going to have a very large inventory of homes available. Some of those that have been around awhile during the winter doldrums have decided to reduce their list price a bit.  Probably a good idea for upcoming sellers to factor into their pricing.

1-21-08. My goodness, on this Martin Luther King holiday, I once again have to say that the Eichler home sellers are really begining to stir, several weeks earlier than usual, but that the buyers are still skiing, or whatever. Wonder what that means? No pending sales last week, but 8 new listings were posted, giving an early start to the spring selling season. An example of the "9-digit zip code market" differential I sometimes refer to once again appears in our current listings. The San Mateo Highlands area of Eichlers contains 5 of the 21 listings, and for the first time all 5 are priced over $1,000,000. Market weakness that is occuring in other 9 digit zips is certainly not occuring up there.

1-14-08.Home buyers are up skiing or otherwise finding other things to do during these early days of the new year. But it appears that home sellers are beginning to stir, as we see three new ones coming on during the past few days.  The total number of transactions during the past 6 months - as seen on the Eichler Market Data page of this site - will very likely soon hit the low for the year. 

The 2007 "numbers", as mentioned last week were very close to those of 2006.  There were 158 Eichler sold in my market area, about 13 per month on average.  The "average" number is of course misleading, for the bulk of the transactions occured during the active spring through fall period.  130 of the 158 occured during the active months of March through October,  104 occured between April and September. Even though the national news of real estate activity is rather depressing, I think we'll see 2008 turn out to be very similar to 2007 in our silicon valley marketplace.

1-7-08. Happy 2008 - it's great to be back!  The last couple of weeks have been very eventful "at home", with all of the activities of the holidays, travel, football games, lousy weather et al, but of course quite uneventful in the silicon valley real estate marketplace, and of course in our slice of it.  The number of listings on December 24th - 15 - were the same when I returned to my website offerings a couple of days ago.  One of those listings just happend to go "Pending" today. You may find it of interest to know that of those 14 listings, 4 incurred a price decrease during the holidays, not atypical during this kind of market, and during this time of year.

Jerry's Journal of 2006-2007

There are some interesting Eichler numbers to review for the 2007 year.  I'll be discussing those next week - see you then!

12-24-07.  A Very Merry Christmas to all of you on this Christmas Eve, and Best Wishes to all for a pleasant, productive, and prosperous 2008.  Time for a break with my family, so Ho Ho Ho , I'll be back in touch January 3rd, 2008!

12-17-07. Christmas holiday decorating and shopping have evidently begun in earnest.  Another typically slow week in our real estate market.  Last Sunday's Mercury News headline, "The Housing Slump - Where it its home" carried an article about the number of foreclosures unfortunately occuring in the valley.  Fortunately, however, those numbers were in areas / zip codes away from the areas including Eichlers. "Our part" of silicon valley seems essentially untouched by those problems.

12-10-07. Well the activity bested last week at least.  3 new listings, and 3 sales occured during this chilly weather week. It appears that we have more than our share of informed buyers.  This slower time of year can be the best time of our real estate year to make that purchase.  "Sounds like a real estate broker" I know, but just let me know your thoughts about next March!

12-3-07. As predicted, a relatively uneventful week last week.  3 new listings, no sales, and cold or cooler weather was the order of the day.

11-26-07. We've entered the seasonal doldrums of the real estate market in silicon valley, and that coupled with the lousy national real estate news in the media will likely make this a rather boring time around here.  Several Eichler buyers (4) did find their homes last week, with purchases made during this season.  Usually, in times like these, home buyers often wait for prices to fall further than they have before they bite the bullet.  That works some time, but around here it often doesn't.  It will be very interesting to see what happens in our marketplace come next February, usually the beginning of our busy spring market.

11-19-07. More activity occured within the past several days than has occured for several weeks.  Can't keep the silicon valley market down!  As mentioned above, it will be interesting to see how the market winds up 2007, and how 2008 begins - in about February. (Remember, that's the time the spring market begins around here.) All the talk about the national housing problems can't help but hurt activity around here, even though we're fortunate to have escaped the bulk of the subprime, et al problems.

  Last weekend's Mercury News carried an article about the Eichler in the real estate section of the paper.  Always nice to see folks paying attention to the uniqueness of the Eichler, even though much of the article was a re-hash or repeat of many previous article.  Like a lot of things in this world, there's not much new in the universe!

11-12-07. The slow season continues, albeit a bit better than last week, with 3 new listings posted, but no new sales were reported.  Gonna' be a slow fall and winter! 

11-5-07. The lack of activity continued last week - in spades - with 1 new listing, 1 sale, and 1 listing withdrawal from the market.  It's going to be a very slow fall and winter season evidently.  If you read above, it's obvious that the early September (again September) high 6 month activity of 119 transactions, will be the high for this year, and as mentioned earlier, about 8% decline of activity versus 2006.  Any guesses about 2008?

10-29-07. We have approximately another month to go before the Thanksgiving holidays - another month of what usually is a pretty active real estate season - before the winter "doldrums" set in, but given the relative inactivity of the past couple of months, I doubt if we're going to seem much change in activity.  Sales units are indeed fewer, as are listings, but prices seem to be holding up well in Eichlerdom.  Homebuyers are still looking, and as usual, waiting to see if prices will soften.  Around here that often does not work.  We'll see if it does this time.

10-22-07. Those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle likely saw the article headlining the Business Section of last Fridays edition, entitled "Home sales in Bay Area crash to 20-year low." (Why is is that newspapers writers/editors love those words such as "crash or soar or collapse, or whatever!?) There's nothing like headlines like that to get your attention, even though reading further brings things back to perspective.  That headline describes the percentage change in the 9 county bay area home sales statistics - lumped together and averaged - for the month of September 2007 versus 2006.  If one wishes to narrow the view, usually a view of where you live, you find that the percent change in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties is less than the average - 38% versus 45%, and that home prices actually increased about 5% for that period.  There is no question that the number of home sales is down from previous years, even though many home buyers have indeed found that the prices have increased from an earlier period.

   The Eichler market place has acted in a similar fashion, i.e., fewer sales than previous periods, but higher prices for those that have sold.  Just take a peek at the Eichler Market Data page of this site, or a couple of paragraphs above, and you'll see that is indeed the case.  As of this writing, using the year 2005 as the base period, there were 12% fewer Eichler sold in 2006, and about 8-9% fewer sold this year versus 2006.  Fewer sales for sure, but as both Eichler sellers and buyers know, higher prices for sure. Again, we're fortunate in many ways to be living in silicon valley!

10-15-07. "Days on the Market" increase day-by-day, listings occur infrequently, and the fall real estate season has not as yet measured up to the norm.  Perhaps that will change before Thanksgiving.  If not, the winter real estate season portends to be a very slow one - but at least one good for home buyers.

10-8-07. We're enjoying another beautiful Monday in Silicon Valley, and the rather slow real estate activity seems to continue.  The way it's going, an inventory of Eichlers in the single digits isn't too far away - a good many weeks before we usually have that happen.  As mentioned last week, 2007 will very likely be a bit less active than the prior 2 years.

10-1-07. We begin the month of October with another beautiful fall day, and a continuation of the fall real estate season.  As mentioned above, 2007 appears to be coming in with activity a bit less than 2006, or indeed, 2005, but all things considered, an active year with at this point, a little less activity than 2006.  With all the national press about the housing industry it is no wonder.  Our listings do appear to be taking more time to find a buyer, but in general, sellers in our silicon valley marketplace don't have as much to complain about as sellers elsewhere.

9-24-07. While the fall season officially started a few days ago, our real estate fall season that essentially begins after Labor Day is approaching a month in duration.  Usually quite active, it appears to be starting out a bit less so this year.  A few new listings have come on the market and then sold quickly, but more than a few have been on the market for a number of weeks - even months.  My guess is that the relative lack of activity is as much a function of "sub-prime media attention/jumbo interest rate increase", as the prices of the listings.  Price decreases are not occuring as one might expect.

9-17-07. Those of you that read the San Francisco Chronicle no doubt read the article in last Friday's Business Section entitled, "Home Sales in Bay Area plunge to 15-year low." It prompts yet another comment about our "micro, or 9 digit micro market association with the Eichler home.  As the article went on to say, August sales - units of course - were down 25% from last year in the 9 county area, but as you read further, the decrease in that time period for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties was about 15%.  "Eichler wise", the numbers are even better.  If you look at the 6 month data on the Eichler Market Data page - a longer and more accurate gauge - you'll see that at the moment, the number of Eichler sold for the last 6 month period is about 9/10% less than last year.  That number may become even less by the end of the month.

  Sales prices this August versus last August?  I don't have the time at the moment to review those, but as I think any frequent reader will agree, they've increased, not decreased.

9-10-07. The new listings are occuring pretty much on schedule, and it would appear that the peak number of new listings that will occur this year, will be much the same as last year, i.e., around 130.  Interesting isn't it - at least for me - given all the attention, usually negative, about real estate in general.  Again, we live in a marvelously blessed area of the planet - for many obvious reasons including the real estate market!

9-4-07.  Labor Day has come and gone.  "Let the games..." , and the fall real estate season begin!

8-27-07.  We're winding up the month of August - the summer real estate "season" - by perhaps getting a head-start into a busier fall season.  The listings scooted up last week to 18, by about twice the number of new listings to sales - the standard way in which the number of listings increase.  We'll soon see if the fall season begins to chip away at the days on the market average by having some of those older listings finally sell.

8-20-07. The "lazy days of summer" may be coming to an end.  Significant sales activity last week accompanied all the press about the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.  We, the silicon valley Eichler markeplace that is, seem to be absorbing all that news very nicely, with few if any problems in that specific - mortgage - area.

I had a delightful exchange of emails last week with Kenneth Harney, the national real estate columnist. (See last weeks commentary.) Even though he is rather familiar with our bay area real estate market, he still couldn't get over the minimal "Days on the Market", and the persistence of multiple offers / "list plus" sales prices. As often mentioned, we are indeed very fortunate around here!

8-13-07. Those of you that read articles written by Kenneth Harney, a nationally syndicated real estate columnist in Washington, D.C., whose articles appear in the Mercury News and the S F Chronicle, probably found his commentary this weekend about "oasis micromarkets" a familiar observation - one I've been writing about a long time. It was nice to see those sentiments discussed by a nationally known chap, rather than from "yours truly" - a voice in the Western wilderness. I'm going to email him to suggest that even a better way to describe those "oasis micromarkets" is to use the 9 digit zip codes, rather than the common 5 digit codes. You heard it here first!

 

Little new to report this Monday - the lazy summer days continue.

8-6-07. Some warm weather brought some homebuyers out last week, and the values were noted. Some of the more recent listings came and went, and since we're now in the last month of summer, perhaps the beginning of the busier fall season is really going to happen. A quick, brief look at the Eichler Market Data page indicates just how our silicon valley Eichler marketplace flys in the face of regional or national statistics. For example, if you just look at some recent sales activity in Sunnyvale and Palo Alto, the last 10 sales to close in Sunnyvale, closed, on average, at a sales price 7.4% above the usually healthy list price. And in Palo Alto, the last 10 sales to close there, closed, again on average, at a sales price 8.3% above the list price. Homebuyers for those areas visiting this website should at least keep those numbers in mind.

7-30-07. The hazy, lazy days of summer continue in the Eichler real estate market. And, it may lead into what will hopefully become a more "normal" market come the Labor Day usual upturn in activity. "Normal", i.e., a market without frenetic activity and jillions of multiple offers - we'll see. The Days on the Market of the current listings do reflect that direction. The average "DOM" of the current listings is now 34 days. If you exclude the 4 listings that have been on 7 days or less, the DOM increases to 48 days. During "normal" times, the average new listing is usually taken for 90 days, for it was not unusual to take about that much time to find the willing buyer and seller. Maybe, just maybe - - - -!

7-23-07. Taking a bit of time off during this slow time, but thanks to "the web", I'm always able to keep you up to date with listings and sales.  See 'ya.

7-16-07. Another rather lackluster week in the real estate business.  When I visit for the first time with prospective buyers I usually go over the seasonal aspects of our silicon valley market.  And when I mention that the summer is the second slowest time for new listings and sales, it is often a surprise.  Well, I think the past few weeks again substantiates what always happens around here.

7-9-07. Nothing of any significance to pass on this week, in particular after the July 4th slowdown.  We did reach the 100 transaction mark on the rolling 6 month list of the Eichler Market Data page, however 'tis a warm, sleepy time at the moment around here.

7-2-07. We begin one of the normally slow months of the year with one of the slowest weeks - the July 4th week / weekend.  I don't expect to see much happening this week.  With only a couple of exceptions, the homes on the market have been there for around a month or more, which could mean they'll be around longer, given the time of year. While I thought we may reach the 100 or more mark of the rolling 6 inventory, we didn't - "close but no cigar!" Have a pleasant July 4th holiday!

6-25-07.  When updating the Eichler Market Data page this weekend it was interesting to see the number of active listings for this 6 month period grow rather a bit more than usual. We're inching towards 100 now, and if there is much listing activity this week, it should surpass that. The inventory at the moment is quite illustrative of a good cross-section of Eichler homes.  Prices range from the $600K's to almost $2.0 million - a commentary on location for sure - and conditions ranging from an acknowledged "As-Is, needs help" to beautifully and tastefully updated homes. It will be interesting to see if the inventory number begins to maintain this higher level.

6-18-07. A pretty good week for home sellers last week with 9 homes going under contract.  Not so good for home buyers for only 2 new listings appeared, both in Sunnyvale. As I was updating the Eichler Market Data page on the weekend, it looks like 2007 will be a "slower" year for Eichler sales than either 2005 or 2006. If September still retains the "peak month" for 2007 (look at the above "rolling 6 comment", it would appear that the numbers will be less, once again. And once again, Eichler sales activity will simply be following the broader market.

6-11-07. Well, we're a couple of weeks into that "sensing" a little change in the market, and I'll stay with that feeling.  I think it very likely the typical "summertime pause", even though the print media is now beginning to comment on the "slowdown."  Interesting article in the S F Chronicle today - "Buyer's hesitate as sellers drop prices, wait" as they comment on the bay area marketplace.  As is often the case, the silicon valley Eichler home enthusiast may not benefit as much as others, for as the article indicates, "It is a bifurcated market, with continued brisk sales of homes in desirable neighborhoods, especially in the $750,000 and up range." With rare exceptions, that describes our market.

6-4-07. Interesting. While one week does not provide enough data to base opinions, I can't help but sense a little change in the market.  I just updated the Eichler Market Data page, and for the first time in many weeks - even months - there was a notable jump in the number of listings on my rolling 6 month basis, all reflecting fewer sales and more new listings during that period - all of a sudden.  Well, summer is usually slower than the spring, so we'll see if this early feel of the market pans out to be real or not - in a few weeks. Home buyers would love to see that happen!

5-29-07. Memorial Day has come and gone, and we've now entered the un-offical beginning of summer, and the unofficial beginning of a slower real estate season.  It's hard to believe that it will become much slower than the past few weeks but time will tell.  The problem remains the same - fewer folks that wish to sell their Eichler, and more folks that are waiting for them to come on the market. It's a difficult market to try to figure out.

5-14-07. I think this may be a record.  Of the 8 current listings today, only 2 are in Santa Clara County.  Two! One in Sunnyvale and one in Palo Alto.  The remainder are in San Mateo County - Foster City, San Mateo and Burlingame. That pretty well explains the "whys & wherefores" of the current market.  Any changes in sight?  None are visible to me.

5-7-07. The "quasi-active" note of activity of a week or so ago, certainly continued last week, with listings coming, some going quickly, and yes, some listing activity in San Jose for a change.  It's about time!

Those of you interested in "numbers" are hopefully visiting my Market Data page of this site periodically.  I update it once a week, on the weekend, and while doing so this past weekend, the picture or trend that these numbers paint tell an interesting story, a story that - once again - the newspapers tend not to tell.  For example, in the "universe" of Eichler home sales activity that I cover, there have been 33 sales closed during these past 4 month of 2007.  The bulk of them - 17 -  occured in Palo Alto (not surprising), and of the 17, 16 sold at prices above list price - as much as 44% above list price!  The area with the 2nd most active level of activity, Sunnyvale, (again, not surprising) had 6 sales, with 3 selling above list price, not by 40+ percent, but as much as 10%.  The numbers now get a bit too small to determine trends, however, of the 3 sales occuring in the San Mateo Highlands, all three sold above list prices - around the 10% level. 

The moral of the story - again - is that real estate is local - very local - and while national news about the subject can be interesting, don't base purchase or sale decisions on that news.

4-30-07. We are finishing up April on a quasi-active note - less than normal Aprils, but certainly more active than March - so perhaps that portends a more active May.  Let's hope so.  It's interestihg that the listing "wave" seems to have hit Sunnyvale the last week or so.  Maybe the same wave will be traveling a bit further south, so thatSan Jose will have several come onto the market soon.  Those of you that have targeted that area should visit here frequently!

4-23-07. Well the week was, as hoped, more active than prior weeks this spring.  There were 5 new listings making their debut last week, and 6 sales occured during that period of time.  At least we are staying around that 10 to a dozen number as the spring continues and hopefully, warm weather sets in. Those of you that may be more interested in the the San Jose or Cupertino Eichler enclaves, have been experiencing a time of virtually no listing activity.  There have only been 2 listings/sales in each of those areas since the year began.  I suppose statistics would say that we therefore are due to see more activity in those areas.  Let's hope so! 

4-16-07. It appeared that spring had really begin to "sprung" last week with several new listings, principally in Palo Alto.  We'll hope that continues this week so that home buyers will have a bit more from which to choose.

4-9-07. Yesterday's S. F. Chronicle's Real Estate Section carried an article entitled "Bloom & Gloom", with the sub-head, "Spring has sprung, but home prices are expected to blossom in only a few parts of the region - generally west of the bay - as inventory remains low and sales number stay slack."  Indeed so!  As the article further goes on to say, sales are brisk in places like Palo Alto and Saratoga - silicon valley - in part because there are so few listings, compared to last year, and frankly, about any year that I can recall.  Our Eichler home sellers are truly benefiting from the basic supply / demand law of economics.  What's puzzleing is that relatively few sellers are taking advantage of that!

4-2-07. A very interesting time in our marketplace. Those of you that visit this site daily saw the inventory fall to a record low of 3 Eichlers last Friday. Some activity over the weekend made that increase to 4 today, but still, those numbers are record setting. It once again prompts me to comment on the local, very local nature of our silicon valley Eichler marketplace. I receive real estate statistics from various local sources, and last Friday received the "Housing Inventory Snapshot" of Northern California counties. Average Days on the Market in March for Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County priced under $1.0 million were 52, and for those over $1.0 million, 69. San Mateo County numbers were slightly less for March - 49 and 56. I ran the Eichler home sales "Days on the Market" numbers for March - last month - and that number for the 15 homes that sold in March was 9, yes, 9. What more can I say!

3-26-07. A couple of home sellers tried to help our inventory situation last week, so we at least begin the week with 9 homes on the market, versus the 4 or 5 that I've been accustomed to reporting.  At least a step forward.  If these new listings stay around a bit longer than "spring usual" - around a week -  and we see a few more new ones posted, that will be a positive sign for folks looking for their Eichler home.

 

3-19-07. Much hoopla about about "sub prime" mortages in the national media and columns, but it seems another example of "like politics, real estate is very local", for silicon valley appears less troubled by that phenomenon.  The profile and demographics of a typical Eichler home buyer in their part of the market may have something to do with that as well.  I've been asked at times what I mean, in the above context for example, when I say "local."  I think the best way to describe or define that is to say "a 9 digit zip code."  It could even be more refined in certain areas, but for the most part 9 digits, i.e., 94306-xxxx, or 94087-xxxx - a 9 digit zip code is as close as it gets to "real estate local."

3-12-07. Perhaps the beginning of some warmer weather will persuade upcoming home sellers to get going, for the time seems all but perfect to place properties on the market.  As you can see, we are having a dificult time increasing the inventory beyond 5 to 10 homes, for as soon as they come one, they go within a week or so.  Of course there are always the few that stay around much longer, usually because of price/value, but that seems always to be the case in this business.

3-5-07.Whada'ya know - we gained a couple of new listings from a week ago, and we're now up to 8, at least for a couple of days.  It's been an interesting year thus far in Eichlerdom, with the majority of Eichler sales occuring in the more expensive areas, essentially Palo Alto and north of there.  Palo Alto contains about 40% of the homes in my area of silicon valley, and since January 1, about 70% of the Eichlers sold have been in Palo Alto or north of there. We'll see what happens during the next couple of months, but my guess is that we'll see more "southern" Eichlers come onto the market.

2-26-07. Folks this is getting to be a bit ridiculous.  A single digit number of listings early in the year is not unexpected or unusual, but it is unusual to get down to the current level - 4 -  and remain at this level         for as long as it has.  Some of my comments or observations in my recent weekly "Summararies" about a "thin" inventory         are indeed proving to be pretty accurate.  For the sake of a lot of home buyers out there, I wish they weren't!

2-19-07. On January 2 of this year I thought this spring might be a "barn-burner."  Well - no "barn-burner         as yet, but a couple of weeks after the Super Bowl does not a market make!  The market remains quite balanced, as we         have about the same number of listings occuring as sales - last week 3 new listings, and 3 new sales.

Yesterday's Real Estate Section of the San Francisco Chronicle carried a "cover page" article - "Keeping up with the Benjamins"         by a Craig Venezia, that is worth your time, in particular if you are considering the purchase of a home in silicon         valley.  Among other cogent observations, he offers a commentary on a subject that I have discussed with my home         buying clients for many years - "Appreciation far outpaces income.  That's why only 12% of the Bay area can afford         to buy a home."  So true!  Usually the secret for a first time silicon valley home buyer is simply to enter the market         and buy a home.  It very likely will not be the home you've been thinking about.  It very likely will cost several         times more than a similar or larger home you have seen elsewhere - outside silicon valley.  But - it will enable you         to enter a real estate market that appreciates more than incomes normally do, and help you get started to ultimately         acquire the home that you indeed have been waiting for.  It's not easy to do the first time, but believe me, it has         always paid off in our valley.

2-12-07. Well - - the Super Bowl is indeed over, and the games are getting off to a slow start!  While you         don't exactly expect the flood gates to open with new listings, you do expect more than 1 or 2 new ones to begin the         spring season.  Home buyers are certainly out there hoping for an inventory from which to choose, and  interest         rates are still at an attractive level.  We just need some folks to bite the bullet, and do it!

2-5-07. The Super Bowl is over - let the real estate games begin.  Wow!  The number of active listings   have hit a very low number - 4.  When the listings begin to appear- as they will -it will be very interesting to see just         how large the inventory will become.  Got a feeling that the inventory number will take some time to increase         significantly, because if priced reasonably at the market, they will not last very long, keeping the inventory quite "thin."  We'll         see.

1-29-07. One more week to the Super Bowl, and one more week to the beginning of our spring         real estate seaon. (Where have you heard that before?)  And it should be an interesting spring season as well, and one that the waiting homebuyer may not particularly like.  As I was updating the Eichler         Market Data page this weekend, it becomes rather clear and perhaps ominous what the homebuyer faces this year.  8 new Eichler listings have come on to our marketplace since January 1. Those 8 are located in 5         different cities.  Of the 8, 7 are listed at prices above $1,000,000. Of those 8, 4 have already sold with         their "Sales Pending."   It appears that the late 2005 "pause" in real estate action is about over.  We'll see -         stand by!

      

1-22-07. Well the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts will meet in a couple of weeks at the Super Bowl, and when that happens the spring real estate market usually wakes up.  We'll see if that holds true again this year. Lets hope that warmer weather also arrives at about the same time.   Prediction, not for the Super Bowl, but for new listings.  By this time next month the number of listings will have doubled - or more.

1-15-07. Around here, the focus of activity and attention is not real estate, but keeping          warm!  I don't recall a time when the temperatures have gotten as low as they are now - for this length of time.  And it unfortunately is to continue for several more days.  And, so is the real         estate doldrum.  So much for global warming - at least for awhile.

 

1-8-07. The real estate doldrums continue. At least the number of listings remained at 5, with the sale of one in Palo Alto, and the new listing in Burlingame.  All else remains calm. Once         again, the doldrums can be a propicious time for the buyer if the right home is still on the market.

   

1-2-07. Happy New Year!  It appears that we are beginning the year with the fewest number     of listings - 5 - that I can ever recall.  Not unusual for the first week of the     year, but still about as low as it ever gets.  I have a feeling this spring will be     a "barn-burner."

   

12-18-06. This will be my last Monday morning update of the year, so I think a couple of comments      would be appropriate.  2006 has     indeed been an interesting one in the real estate business - a year of two halves. The     first six months were essentially a continuation of 2005, with active sellers, and as     in 2005, even more active home buyers with a purpose to buy durng that time.  The last     six month's activity changed, with home buyers becoming spooked, in particular by the     national media's attention to the slowing real estate market. Even with interest rates     leveling - and even going lower - home buyers still seem to searching for the bottom of     the market.   While understandable, that approach, and this current window of opportunity     may disappear by next February or March in silicon valley, the beginning of our spring.     2007 should be another interesting year in Eichlerdom, and in our silicon valley real     estate market.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! See you next year!

       

12-11-06. Another quiet week in Eichlerdom.  If you visit the Eichler Market     Market Data page of this site you'll see that the total number of listings during the     past 6 months has gone down to 92, reflecting the relative slowing activity compared to     last year, and that number is likely going down further during the next couple of months.     Real estate activity certainly is cyclical, and this cycle is quite normal as well.

   

12-4-06. We just went through a very quiet - boring - week as we entered the     last month of the year. Don't expect to see it become much different in the weeks ahead,     or in the first few weeks of January. Probably a smart time to be a home buyer, and if you     think a minimal inventory helps you as a home seller, not a bad time either! Just look at     the list above.

   

11-27-06. It's apparent that a "Mexican stand-off" of sorts, i.e. home     buyers not buying and home sellers not budging on price, is occuring here in silicon     valley. If that continues, we will probably have to wait until next February or so to see     if those decisions were correct or not. Given past history, and the likelihood that spring     activity is normally bullish, I'll simply defer to my comments of last week. Your     thoughts? Let me know at jditto@eichlerhomes.com.

   

11-18-06. More of the same as we enter the Thanksgiving week and weekend - the     normal beginning of the real estate doldrums for the year. Home buyers are still around,     but many are continuing to wait for what they hope will be lower prices. As mentioned     before, a questionable strategy akin to trying to buy stocks when prices are falling, and     sell when prices are higher. Unlike stock speculation, home purchases are usually made for     the long term - at least 5 years or so. And when employing that strategy, once finding the     home that really appeals and fits the buyers requirements, it usually makes a lot of sense     to buy it - in particular in silicon valley markets, and in particular when interest rates     are at or bouncing around historic lows as they are now. Just ask anyone who has purchased     a home in 2001 - at the "height" of the real estate bubble around here!

   

11-13-06 Even though we got down to single digit Eichler inventory numbers last     week, a couple of new listings over the weekend brings it back up to 13. That will     obviously help the average "Days on the Market" lookers feel better, the folks     that have been there for awhile don't particularly care about that. A chilly Monday makes     it feel more and more like fall.

   

11-6-06.Yes indeed, as mentioned last week, the "doldrums" seem to     have begun earlier this year. My open house at Pear Avenue in Sunnyvale was relatively     active, but we certainly had room for more. It seems that real home buyers, those that are     not "just looking", are still waiting, presumably for lower prices. That may or     may not be a good strategy. When we are in this type of market, with increasing "Days     on the Market" -(it's now 65 in Eichlerdom)- and a small inventory reflecting reduced     prices, home sellers are usually in more of a "negotiable mode." After the     seasonal doldrums end early next year, the spring real estate season is usually     characterized by new and higher prices, as well as a "multiple offer"     expectation mode. In my experience, it's always best to be proactive in a more     "balanced" market.

   

10-30-06. We're finishing October on a very calm note, with little happening in     the way of new listings or new sales. The "doldrums" of the real estate season     may be beginning a bit earlier this year - about a month earlier in fact. You would think     that the glorious weather we've having in silicon valley would keep the activity humming,     but that doesn't seem to be the case.

   

10-23-06. Today's inventory of Eichler listings is edging lower, a bit sooner     than one would usually expect. You usually see that happening during the holiday seasons,     late November, December and early January. If home sellers are realistic with their 2006     pricing, a smaller inventory should help them find a buyer more quickly. It simply appears     that the real estate market has become more balanced, where home buyers have more of an     opportunity to negotiate their purchase, and informed home sellers have realized that the     market has changed from the sellers favor of the last few years.

   

10-16-06. My goodness, a lot of activity over the weekend. Perhaps home buyers     are beginning to realize that the softening home prices are soft enough, in particular     given the lower interest rates, and are deciding not to "bottom fish" any     further. Probably a good idea, for there are some areas where prices are now beginning to     advance!

   

10-9-06. For those of you that archive or otherwise save my weekly summary     commentaries, I'll be removing those weekly comments that are over 2 years old shortly.     Interesting, for me at least, to go back - scroll down - and read those of similar periods     a year or two ago. If you do so now for this period of time last year, and in 2004 as     well, you'll see the differences in our marketplace between 2004 and now, and I think     you'll also see that our "return to normalcy" began about a year ago, not     recently, as some in the media would have you to believe.

   

Our "Mexican Standoff" between buyers and sellers still continues, with only     a few signs that home sellers are beginning to understand the current market.

   

10-2-06. Our fall real estate market - Labor Day to Thanksgiving - is less     active than past fall seasons. We definitely are in a market in transition. My Eichler     Market Data page of this website has now been active for a year, and as you have probably     read above - at one time or another - this past 6 months of activity, compared to the     activity of those same months in 2005 show a fairly significant decrease in activity. As     is mentioned, we saw 148 transactions occuring during this time period last year. This     year, that number is 126, or a 15% decrease in transactions. Given the current activity     and trend that decrease in activity will in all likelihood continue for a few months. Good     for home buyers, not so good for home sellers.

   

9-25-06. Another open house with many visitors to Pear Ave. in Sunnyvale, and     virtually as many compliments about this unusual open but private floor plan. For those of     you that couldn't make it, go back to the Featured Listing link on the Current Listings     page, and you can "take a tour" of the home.

   

The media certainly loves to follow real estate. Newspaper columnists are offering all     kinds of commentary about the "sellers market" disappearing, the "buyer's     market" in full stride, and all kinds of variations in between. If you are a regular     reader of my commentary - look at some past offerings - you'll see that I think we are     simply in a normal pausing or transitional time, a time when home buyers usually don't     have to compete with many multiple offers on a home, and home sellers expect to have their     homes on the market for more than a couple of days. Healthier times for all in my view.

   

9-18-06. It's always great to see old clients, and make some new friends at Open     Houses, and such was the case at our Open House at Raleigh Avenue in San Jose yesterday.     It seems all were quite impressed with the home and the lovely staging. Someone is going     to wind up with quite an outstanding example of an Eichler, tasefully upgraded, and     modified with a very functional garage conversion. The fall season is enjoying some very     nice weather, and a relatively good number of homes from which to choose. That may not     last long!

   

9-11-06. Little to report on the 5th aniversary of that horrific day in our     lives. Onward and upward!

   

9-5-06. Labor Day has come and gone, so let the real estate buying season begin     - hopefully! All the dour commentary you here in the media about the declining real estate     market never helps - sometimes a self-fulfilling prophecy - but we'll see. There is no     question that "days on the market" have been increasing as of late, in     particular in certain zip codes. "Bottom fishers" in the real estate market best     take notice, for sometimes that bottom reverses rather quickly.

   

8-28-06. It's always nice to see newspaper articles written about Eichler homes.     A couple of articles, one devoted to "Eichler Update - Helping a midcentury classic     fit a 21st century style of living", and another "Preservation - Saving the     Eichler aesthetic", appeared in last Saturday's Home & Garden section of the San     Francisco Chronicle. I must say that both articles were in marked contrast to the one the     Chronicle carried a few weeks ago, (see my 7-31 comments below), and both will I know be     of interest to Eichler homeowners and enthusiasts. How many other homes are featured, and     written about in various magazines and forms of media? I think you know the answer!

   

8-21-06. Another very busy Open House on Murray Way in Palo Alto, but as     mentioned last week, one Open House does not a market make. With the possible exception of     Palo Alto, the market place is still in the throes of a summertime pause. However, it     wouldn't surprise me to say in the months ahead that that silicon valley home buyer's     market began in the summer of 2006. If that's the case, we'll see a period of time when     home sellers will see their days on the market increasing - as it is now, homes being     pulled off the market - as is happening now, and home sellers reluctantly or slowly     reducing prices - which, in general, really hasn't happened as yet. And - home buyers that     are really ready to buy will see this happening, and decide to wait to see just how far     prices will go down! Sharp home sellers will react accordingly, and the sharpest of home     buyers will do so as well - and the real estate market in silicon valley will continue     it's upward climb, with occasional blips - as always.

   

8-14-06. One Open House does not a market make. While the activity at Sunday's     open house on Ferne Ave. was rather active, the overall Eichler marketplace - and the     market in general - is still moving slowly. Guess everything moves a bit slower during hot     weather. Interesting to me that there have been more canceled or withdrawn listings this     year, than at any other time I can recall. That probably is symptomatic of home sellers     wishing for the prices they saw occuring earlier in the spring, and finding that those     prices just aren't occuring at the moment. Even though a small universe, the average     number of "Days on the Market" of 17 of the current Eichler listings is 44 days.     The 18th has been on well over 6 months (hard to understand why!), and would skew the     numbers if included in the total. Anyway - I think it's a interestsing commentary on the     marketplace.

   

8-7-06. The rather slow summertime activity continues, with 2 new listings     posted last week, and 2 sales recorded - and the days on the market continue to grow. And,     my goodness, the article in last weeks San Francisco Chronicle that I referred to in last     week's summary comments, did indeed attract a huge response from its readers - far and     wide. The editor of the Home & Garden section mentioned that it generated "more     than 140 letters, and 23,000 hits" on the SF Gate.com website. I'm sure the majority,     including mine and the others that didn't make the Letters to the Editor section, were     critical of the article's bias toward the features of the Eichler mentioned. I'm still not     sure that the editor "gets it", because of the comments in her responding     article, "It's only a house" which headlined her response last Saturday. I     wonder if she describes other notable and widely recognized achievements the same way,     i.e., "...it's only a bridge" - for the Golden Gate, or "...it's only an     office building", for the Transamerica Pyramid, or "... it's only a ---(fill in     the blanks)". OK - perhaps not perfect analogies, but you get the idea!

   

7-31-06. The national media is convinced that the real estate market has turned     into a buyer's market. It appears that that certainly is the case in those markets where     "flipping" was the rule of the day, but from my perspective, that is not yet the     case around the silicon valley marketplace. There is no question that homes, including     Eichlers, are remaining on the market for a longer period of time before a sales contract     occurs. I'm not quite sure that is simply the summer market with fewer home buyers around,     or the transition that occurs before a change in the market occurs. We'll know in sometime     in September.

   

Those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle may have seen the article in the     Home Section last Sunday that was not very complimentary to the Eichler. The author, a     younger person whose grandmother owned the home prior to her death, seemed to delight in     writing about a leaking roof, lack of insulation, and a less than desirable heating     system. She rather quickly passed by the observation that "... household upkeep was     not a priority" of her grandmother. I think it rather disengenuous to dwell on those     deficiencies, given the lack of upkeep. I suppose that's one way to get published if     you're a free-lance writer. We'll see if my letter to the editor in respose to the article     gets published as well!

   

7-24-06. Whew! I cannot remember when it has been so hot around here, for so     many days in a row. Very, very unusual weather. Global warming will have a new meaning for     lots of folks now! Little to comment on. Our summer doldrums continue.

   

7-17-06. I just read my commentary for last week, and I can in essence repeat     the same views for this commentary. I'll do so - "Ditto", and just add that we     are now probably entering the period when home buyers, seeing the "pause", think     it's best to wait further "to see just how far the prices will go down." We'll     re-visit this thought, after Labor Day, to see if this timing strategy makes sense or not.     I think you can probably imagine what the history of this approach offers.

   

7-10-06. The last couple of weeks activity has been in keeping with our summer     market. No new listings occured last week, and only a couple of sales occured during that     holiday week. Some have been saying that the sellers market is now over, and it's finally     now a buyer's market. That's not true, at least from my perspective, for markets simply do     not go from "black to white", or "positive to negative" overnight. I     do think that our market is either pausing - taking a breath - or transitioning from one     to another. Only a handful of listings have recently sold in a matter of a few days -     typical in our seller market areas - and the remainder have been around for a month or     more. That is indeed a sign of a transitioning market, and summertime is often a time for     just that.

   

6-26-06. Got this quick update in while spending some time with the grandkids.     Between the heat, the "going", and trying to keep up the pace, keeping up is     taking its toll. I'm going to have to take more time off to recover!!! Much fun though!     See 'ya.

   

6-19-06. The San Jose Mercury News carrys a little graph in the weekend     "Real Estate" section of that paper that tracks the number of home sales on a     seasonal basis, as well as the number of homes that have sold over the listed price. The     area covered is essentially Santa Clara valley, and for the past many months, the number     of homes that have sold over list price hovers around 50%. If you look at the data on my     Eichler Homes Marketplace page of this site, you will see that the number of Eichlers that     have sold during the past 6 months over the listed price amount to some 60%. I think it's     obvious that "Eichler market" certainly follows the total market, and in this     measurement, slightly exceeds it. It is likely that that excess is caused by the number of     Eichler sales in areas such as Palo Alto, or other "hot markets" in Santa Clara     county.

   

6-12-06. Another fun weekend, spending a bit of time with Ned Eichler, and his     lovely wife, during his presentation at the Fairbrae Center in Sunnyvale. It was nice to     see some past clients, and Eichler owners and enthusiasts, young and old. There are some     interesting parallels between the Eichler buyer of the 50's and 60's, and those of today     and recent past. And there are some interesting differences as well. Perhaps some fodder     for further commentary?! Please let me know.

   

6-5-06. Last week was a busy one as far as new listings go. The wet spring seems     to have pushed listings that normally would have occured a month or so ago into this time     frame, with 13 new listing occuring last week. 12 of the 28 current listings are less than     1 week old. We'll see how long these numbers stay in the high 20's, and if the DOM goes up     or down.

   

5-30-06. Well, in real estate lingo, we've finished our active spring season,     and now entering the summer season. Long time readers of this site know that,in my     estimation at least, the summer is never quite as busy as spring. We'll see if that is the     case again this year. While spring 2006 has been an active one, it has not been as busy as     last year. The "pause" that is occuring in the national market place, is     occuring here as well, and from my point of view, that's healthy.

   

5-22-06. A fun weekend, with a couple of hours spent up in the Highlands     listening to Ned Eichler, and his talk at the rec center - "I Now Sing for my     Father." Evidently Joe Eichler was quite a story-teller. I must say that he passed     that skill on to his son Ned. A very enjoyable talk, and and a very enjoyable time was had     by all. Eichler owners, young and old, heard vignettes about his father and those busy     years of the 50's and 60's. As you may know, other talks and book-signings such as this,     are to be given by Ned down the peninsula, next month, and later on. One of those talks     that was previously scheduled for June 3rd in Palo Alto has been postponed until     the fall. The others, one in San Jose on June 4th, and the other in Sunnyvale on June     10th will be held as scheduled. Let me know if you have any questions about times and     places.

   

5-15-06. "Days on the Market" - - - "DOM" in realtor     parlance, and a phrase used to evaluate or comment on a given real estate market. The     longer the DOM, the "slower" the market, and the more it usually favors the home     buyer. And of course the shorter it is, the more it favors the home seller. The DOM in my     Eichler market place is inching up little by little. Today, not counting one listing that     has been there for almost 6 months - it would distort the average - the average DOM is 25     days. In most areas of the country, and during more "normal" markets, that would     be a very healthy number - good for both buyer and seller. Around here, as you all likely     know, 25 is about double the number that we have been experiencing for well over a year.     So - a move in the direction of "normalcy?" I think so - we'll see.

   

5-8-06. No question about it this year. The early spring rains - downpours! -     really did delay the spring real estate activity. New listings are occuring with the     frequency that we always expect - witness the new level of inventory at 25. Sunshine does     indeed affect the psyche of most of us.

   

It's interesting to me how much attention the newer internet sites - those that attempt     to value homes - are attracting in national publications. California again seems to be the     first area where new approaches and sites begin. I see I made mention of those sites a     couple of months ago. Anyway, as mentioned, the more information the better. Just     recognize the pluses and minuses of all of it!

   

5-1-06. Sign of the times - as I updated the Eichler Market Data page last     weekend, I had to smile, then empathize with home buyers in this silicon valley     marketplace. Even though there were only 6 new listings posted last week, 5 in Palo Alto,     5 of the 6 were priced more than $1,000,000. And in many ways, the spring real estate     market is just now beginning to get heated. I think the wet weather has delayed the normal     February through April buzz-saw until about now. We'll see if that continues.

   

4-24-06. Our Eichlers are once again the subject of newspaper or magazine     articles - it seems to happen at least two or three times a year. This time, a brief one     page article (the last page of the magazine) by Peter Fish, in the Western Wanderings     series of Sunset Magazine, May issue, entitled Tomorrow's House Today     provides a short but sweet summary of the history of the Eichler, and how the design of     these "anti-monster" houses still attract so many folks in our     "monster-home" market, so prevalent in many areas of silicon valley today. Yours     truly, who was interviewed for the article months ago, was quoted in saying, among other     things, how most folks including realtors, didn't particularly like the Eichler home 15     years ago. That was the case, and I suppose that is still true today - but - a sizeable     chunk of todays younger home buyers do indeed understand and appreciate the design     features of classic Eichlers. I obviously still do!

   

4-17-06. New listings posted last week - new sales throughout the week and     weekend! I thought we were going to build a healthier inventory, but it seems that's not     going to be the case. If it ever stops raining we'll probably get down to single digits     and stay there!

   

4-10-06. Well the number of listings has finally begun to grow a bit. While it     has seemed rather slow this year, a peek back at my commentary a year ago reveals that the     number of active listings are about the same. It just seems slower! 'Twas good to see some     old friends and acquaintenaces at our Open House on Dehavilland last week. While the     county records indicate the spelling of the street to be as I list, evidently search     engines spell it like "Olivia" - DeHavilland, i.e. For those that don't know     Saratoga history, yes indeed, both Olivia DeHavilland and her sister, Joanne Fontaine -     both Hollwood stars and Oscar winners of the 40's and 50's lived in Saratoga years ago. I     happend to meet Olivia while walking across Big Basin Way in downtown Saratoga 15 or 20     years ago. But - that's another story!

   

4-3-06. The wettest March in our history has, I think, contributed to a very     slow spring real estate season. I also think that this pause in activity is the     marketplace returning to some form of "normalcy" in Silicon Valley, after years     of exuberance. No, not "irrational", but exuberance to be sure. With the     possible exception of Palo Alto, the number of "days on the market" continues to     grow, and again, with a few exceptions, the number of multiple offers have markedly     decreased. If this weather and that market characterization continues, I would think that     we will see it have an effect on prices. Stand by.

   

3-27-06. We had a marvelous sunny Sunday for a delightful Open House on     Dehavilland Dr. in Saratoga. It was nice to see all the neighbors that could visit, and     meet some new folks as well. As expected, everyone has been amazed to see the     transformation of what was a lovely home, into something rather incredible. Good to see     you all! Glad you could come by!

   

3-20-06. Please visit the Featured Listing link on the Current     Listings page, and you'll see the early listing information on our new Saratoga     listing. Additional pictures and the "virtual tour" will also be appearing later     this week as the photography is done and downloaded. It is truly an outstanding home! As     mentioned on that page, the home will be open this Sunday, March 26th from 1:30 to 4:30PM.     Please drop by - I'd love to show it to you!

   

On another note, for those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle, todays Letters     to the Editor section contains a letter concerning "Housing Trends", from Avram     Goldman, President and COO of Coldwell Banker in San Ramon. You will I think find it quite     appropriate, and "right on" in terms of explaining what is happening around here     in the real estate market. All of us who are "in the business" find it     interesting how the media characterizes the real estate market as a"bursting     bubble", when prices increase only 4 or 5%, instead of 12 to 15%, or more. Anyway,     perhaps you will find it illuminating. If there is any change going on around here     "as we speak", it is only - hopefully - that we are seeing a return to a more     "normal", buyer / seller market.

   

3-13-06. I have just listed the most striking remodeled Eichler that I have ever     seen. As you might imagine, I have seen hundreds if not thousands over the past 15 years     or so, and while that is a strong statement, it is indeed true. More information will     appear here during the weekend, and pictures, video tour, et al next week. I'm anxious for     all of you see it, both here and hopefully in person.

   

3-6-06. The headline in last Saturday's San Jose Mercury News was     "Web transforming real estate sales", with a sub-headline of "Sites offer     more data that agents do." There is no question that the internet has transformed     many businesses, but not many more than residential real estate sales. And for the most     part, "that's a good thing!" Several of the sites mentioned in the article     certainly do offer the public and web surfers lots of information that once was the     purview only of real estate professiionals. While the old saw, "A little bit of     knowledge is a dangerous thing" probably applies here as well, I think having folks     know more, not less, always works to the advantage of all.

   

A couple of thoughts regarding a few of those sites - in particular those that value     properties. Some are obviously set up to have you connect with an agent that will help you     do so, and others attempt to do it "online", with accuracy within 10% or so.     That's obviously a function of "comparable" sales, and information pulled from     county records. Often that information needs refinement or updating - sometimes a lot -     and among other things, that's what good brokers/agents do. In fact, most folks that have     been looking for properties for any length of time can often guess the list price/value of     the home within 10%, without the help of any of these sites.

   

I hope visitors to my website, and certainly my clients think that my site does indeed     offer information that you will find no where else, given the focus only on Eichler homes.     While my site does not offer the "4-color bells and whistles", links to weather,     etc., I am proud of its accuracy, timeliness and ease of navigation. Even though it may     show its age via the graphics - it has been up and running since 1995 - it has received a     lot of compliments, for which I thank you! I'd love to hear your comments. Please take a     moment to let me know your views! - Jerry

   

2-27-06. Who knows whether or not it's the climate - weather, economic, or     emotional - or an idiosyncrasy of 2006, the normaly busy, post Super Bowl market that I     often refer to as a hectic time in this business- just isn't! At least at the moment. With     a couple of exceptions, listings that have been on the market as long as 2 to 3 months are     still there, and new listings are not appearing with the frequency expected. A week or a     month "does not a market make", but it may be we that are beginning to see a     change from what we've seen in the marketplace for a couple of years. Stand by!

   

2-20-06. Happy President's Day! I hope you all were able to read Dan Perrigan's     article in yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle's Real Estate section - "The Eichler     & the Ecstasy." While it mentioned several aspects of "the Eichler" and     Joe Eichler that usually find their way into stories about our classic homes, the     commentary about Mr. Eichler's progressive civil rights stance in home building and     marketing was especially well done. And Ned Eichler's recollections of those early days of     their homebuilding attest, as always, to his story telling prowness. Great stuff! Ned, Joe     Eichler's son, was President of Eichler Homes during the 1950's.

   

It was also nice to see the comments of two of my past homebuyer clients, the     Cornillons and the Gallis, as well as to see a picture of the Cornillon home. And of     course I'm always pleased and proud to see the name Eichler Homes Realty mentioned     in these articles!

   

The article made mention of Ned Eichler's new book, "Fame or Fortune", which     has just been published. I have recently been able to give Ned a hand in scheduling talks     about the book in a presentation he calls "I Now Sing for my Father". Those     talks will be occuring this May and June, and I'll be writing about the time and places     later. Ned is as mentioned quite a "story teller", and I know lots of folks,     Eichler owners and others, will look forward to listening to more of them.

   

2-12-06. As mentioned during the week last week, the editors of the San     Francisco Chronicle decided to run an article about Online Lending last Sunday, as opposed     to the story about Eichler homes and homeowners - for whatever reason. An interesting     article, although speaking from experience, it's always been very helpful and usually     comfortable for my home buyer clients to put a face with a name with their lender or their     represenative. The same I might add goes for real estate brokers! Anyway, I presume the     article will appear next Sunday.

   

Spring has not yet sprung in our marketplace. A couple of new listings, nicely     prepared, have come and gone quickly, but several others are still there. It will be an     interesting spring.

   

2-6-06. The Super Bowl is over - let the real estate games begin! If you have     been checking the Eichler Market Data page of this site, you'll note that the number of     Active, Pending and Sold listings have reached the 80's level, down from approximately 150     several months ago. You will likely see that number beginning to increase as we go through     this month and into the warmer spring.

   

The San Francisco Chronicle will be carrying an article about Eichler homes and     homeowners next Sunday, the 12th. I'm not sure what the thrust will be at the moment, but     as always, the attention given to the "Eichler" is always of interest.

   

I'm advised now that the article will be the "cover article", on the     Chronicle's Real Estate section - this Sunday the 12th, or the following Sunday, the 19th.    

   

1-30-06. While the magic moment of the Super Bowl is a week away, it would     appear that the market is beginning to set its tone a bit earlier than usual. The number     of new listings, 13 at the moment is about twice as high as has been the case in prior     years. Home sellers are evidently eager to get the ball rolling. However, the listings are     beginning to age a bit - with more than half of the listings being there for over 3 weeks,     or being re-listed from prior months. It should be an interesting spring.

   

1-23-06. The NFL playoffs are over and the Super Bowl is but 2 weeks away. And     the real estate market is beginning to make rumblings that its spring season will begin     shortly. New listings appear to be coming on a bit earlier and the inventory is beginning     to build, since home buyers seem not ready to get their feet wet yet. Prices of new     listings are reflecting a continuation of where we left off last year. At least that is an     early read in the Eichler marketplace - really too early to have much predictive value.

   

1-16-06.A chilly holiday in a chilly real estate market. 5 of the 7 current     active listings - the oldest - have been on the market from 35 to 115 days - an average of     65 days. I would say that is a commentary on the current value / price relationship that     is turning favorable to home buyers. We'll see if that continues after the market really     begins its active spring market - in about a month.

   

1-9-06. We're a few weeks away from Super Bowl Sunday, and if seasonality in     this business still prevails - I believe that it does - a few weeks away from the     beginning of the active Spring real estate season. Keep tuned in!

   

1-3-06. Holidays are great, but it's always nice to get back business isn't it?     It least it is for me. The newspapers are full of commentary about the real estate market     for last year and 2006. The prevailing prediction among many industry economists, mortgage     bankers, and the realtor community, is that the strong market of 2005 will be a gradually     slowing market for 2006, albeit still strong by historical standards. While those     sentiments are offered on a national view, I think we will experience much the same here     in Silicon Valley. Home seller expectations of "umpteen" percentage point     increases over 2005, may have to expect those in the 5 to 10% variety in 2006.

Jerry's Journal of 2004-2005

12-26-05. Well, the year is about to come to a close. 2005 was very much like 2004 in the Eichler real estate business, and we'll soon see how 2006 starts off. Don't expect much to happen during January - the spring season around here really begins in February, as long time viewers have heard repeatedly. Have a fun week and a "great 2006! Perhaps I can meet and help you next year!

   

12-19-05. As I said about this time a year ago, it's the time of year for family and friends, and less to real estate. Interesting - if you have a moment, take a peek at my comments here about this time last year. Remarkable similarities!

   

Have a week full of joy, and a very merry Christmas!

   

12-12-05. I've been out of town for about a week - without email - (what a bummer!) so little to report. Actually there has been little to report anyway, as you may have followed during the week. While not "emailable", I was able to keep track of activity and post it on the site. Keeping you informed - - - - -!

   

12-5-05. While I wouldn't characterize it as busy, the market is acting a bit busier than normal for this time of year. Maybe just a brief blip - we'll see. The Eichler Market Data page of this site certainly reflects the typical seasonal slowing. The 6 month activity of all sales statuses is about 20% off its September high. It will be interesting to see just where that bottoms out - likely in February or March of next year.

   

11-28-05. Brr-rr! What a change in weather! From the 70's and 80's a week or so ago, to the 40's and 50's. Really can't complain about our marvelous weather though - we're blessed. The chill still hasn't had much effect on our market. While we haven't had much in the way of sales happening, a couple of new listings just occured just after Thanksgiving. Days on the market are creeping up - no big surprise if that continues. Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

   

11-21-05. We're almost at the time when things normally slow down in this business - Thanksgiving - and last weeks activity of 1 new listing and 2 sales seem to presage just that. The "slower time", i.e. Thanksgiving to Super Bowl Sunday, has been not so hot for home sellers, but often a good time for home buyers to finally     score! Even though the inventory of homes usually becomes smaller and smaller, those homes that come onto the market often remain there longer - sometimes much longer.

   

Have a very Happy Thanksgiving holiday!.

   

11-14-05. My offerings in this weekly summary last year, on 11-15-04, contained     some statements from the Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors. Her     comments, during the then very low inventory and lower interest rates, indicated her     projection of a strong finish to the year (2004) even though "the pace always slows     while the public takes a break for the holidays." She then offered that 2005 would     "mimic" 2004, at a slightly slower pace, and that several other economists     forecasted a market heating up in 2006 and 2007 to the "pre-dot-com" level. She     also projected beyond 2007 - but as I indicated then, the farther out these projections     go, the less accurate they usually are.

   

So,was she right about 2005? She sure was - in fact the pace exceeded her projections.     We'll have to wait about 3 months -until February 2006 - to see if that "heating     up" projection materializes.

   

11-7-05. The "pause" continues and undoubtedly will continue for the     balance of the year. New listings will certainly continue to appear and the ones that show     well and are priced well - reflective of the current market - will likely go rather fast     anyway. My listing in Foster City was a good example of that! There are a good many home     buyers still out there. Hopefully the increase in mortgage interest rates won't offset any     price moderation that occurs for them during this relatively slower market.

   

10-31-05. Well, we're finishing off the month of October is a rather calm way,     much the way it was a week ago. Very little happened last week in the way of new listings     or sales. Yesterday however, started the week on a high note. As always, it is always     great to meet new folks, and renew acquaintenances with past clients at my Sunday Open     Houses. Yesterday's Open at Sanderling St. in Foster City was a huge success, with many     neighbors of course, some old friends and clients, and quite a few new folks dropping by     to say hello, and see how nice the Burgess Eichler was. The Foster City Eichlers,     virtually all of Claude Oakland design, are, as many of you know, nestled among the many     other homes in that area in a rather random fashion. Many Eichler "enclaves" in     other communities are located all together in a specific development. Not so in Foster     City - they're spread all around, not in a contiguous fashion. Eichlers on the Stanford     campus grounds are placed the same way.

   

Here's to probably the last rather active month of the year in real estate- November.     Happy Halloween!

   

10-24-05. There is absolutely no question about it. The real estate market     around here is changing - pausing before the next leg at the very least - from the rather     hectic if not insane market of 2005. 90+% percent of the homes that were on the market     when I was out of the office for a week or so, were still there when I returned. If you     wish to see another example of the changing market, just look at the Cupertino page of     this site. Three listings - three reduced prices. So - everyone, including folks thinking     of selling their homes will benefit from a more normal market. It's about time.

   

Please take a look at our new listing in Foster City. A lovely example of retaining the     original elements of Eichler architecture, but upgrading those areas that benefit from new     technology.

   

10-19-05.Just a quick note after my trip. Little activity in 8 days and a     resultant "DOM" that is increasing surely says that we are transitioning into     more of a normal market. For the record, the average days on the market as of today -     excluding one listing that has been on for 155 days - is 29.8 days - a growing increase.     Finally.

   

10-11-05. Even though October has continued to be a busy fall month, I and     realtor associates of mine are beginning to see and feel a "transition" occuring     in the market place. That transition or softening usually occurs a bit later in the the     fall, usually around Thanksgiving. At this point, the transition "translates"     into homes staying on the market a bit longer, or homes that are stellar from every point     of view are receiving only a couple of offers, not 10 or 12. In either event, if true, its     a positive sign for home buyers.

   

I will be out of the office until the 19th, so there will be no daily updates posted,     or Eichler Market Data update next weekend. "See you" in a week or so.

   

10-3-05. I can't recall the time when the real estate market had so much lay     press, nationally and locally. Of course the bulk of the articles discuss the speculation     that has occured in several locales, notably Florida, in particular Miami, and Las Vegas.     Those articles then segway into "the bubble", or "bubblettes" more     accurately. If you've been reading this summary for any length of time you know my     feelings about any "bubblette" occuring around here. While home buyers would     like to think that is or will be the case, postponeing any purchase around here because of     those expectations is virtually like trying to time individual stocks in the stock market.     Most of the folks that try that don't succeed either.

   

9-26-05. As expected, the inventory of Eichlers has increased nicely since the     beginning of the month. We started out the month with 8, and of course it has more than     doubled. While the "universe" is really too small do draw definitive     conclusions, "DOM" or Days on the Market before a sale occurs is definitely     increasing. If that continues as new listings continue, the pendulum should begin to swing     back towards the home buyer. We'll see.

   

9-20-05. I've been off for a few days, but upon return I see that the new fall     listings continue to increase. It seems to never fail - Labor Day comes and so do the new     listings after the slower summer season. You've heard this from me before, but summer is     definitely not the active season in real estate. Interesting - aside from a couple of     areas in the valley, listings are staying around a bit longer. We'll see if this portends     a change in buyer attitude.

   

9-13-05. The fall real estate season has indeed begun, and we advance from the     single digit listing numbers of late summer. If you go back and read my commentary of     approximately 1 year ago, you will find the old axiom, "... the more things change,     the more they stay the same" to be true. The past 12 months have been and continue to     be a profitable time for home sellers. Unfortunately for home buyers, there is nothing on     the horizon that says it will be any different during the next 12 months.

   

9-5-05. Labor Day has arrived - what a week! The fall real estate season begins.

   

8-29-05. Well, Labor Day is around the corner, so we'll soon see if it marks the     beginning of a busier real estate market. It usually does. The Eichler Market Data page is     again up and running with current data posted as of last Saturday. The graphic will     follow.

   

8-22-05. Much the same as last week, with the summer doldrums continuing. The     news media is really stuck on the real estate bubble isn't it. It seems rather old hat to     us in silicon valley, but obviously not to middle America. Always remember, like politics,     real estate is local, and around here, with virtually countless mico-markets, it is very     local.

   

8-15-05. And the relative doldrums of the silicon valley real estate market     continues. I say relative, because this summer has been more active than most. It's always     nice to see publications carry articles on the Eichler home, or in some favorable way make     mention of what Joe Eichler did. For example, the "Glide-house" of architect     Michelle Kaufmann that is on exhibit at the Sunset Magazine headquarters in Menlo Park     prompted an article in the Mercury News, and elsewhere, that makes reference to the     Eichler. The Sunset home editor was quoted in saying, "This place to me feels     revolutionary, much like the early Eichler homes must have seemed in their day." The     August 2005 of Sunset Magazine also features this home.

   

Also, the August/September 2005 issue of "Lifescapes Magazine" includes an     article on a very tastefully "re-furbished" Eichler in Southern California. The     article was entitled, "Melding Simplicity with Timelessness." Some lovely     photographs accompanied the article. I can't help but smile. I can remember well - many     years ago - when my interest in contemporary architecture and the Eichler in particular     was rather poo-pooed, in particular by the real estate community when I started this     company. Well - pure and simple, great design is simply timeless, and there indeed are     folks that appreciate it.

   

8-8-05. I missed the single digits by a week, but it's now here. We'll see if it     stays that way. Some of you may have seen the recent article in the WSJ by Neil Barsky     entitled "What Housing Bubble?" A worthwhile read, and to quickly summarize, it     discussed 3 current myths about the real estate market: 1- Too much capacity (new     building), 2- Risky mortgage products, and 3- Speculators are driving home prices. Those     myths are obviously a national view, which as I've mentioned before, doesn't work well on     a local level. In Mr. Barsky's opinion, they don't work well nationally either. Anyway,     it's interesting that the talk of such a bubble seems to be off the front pages lately -     even disappearing in many quarter.

   

8-1-05. Well we didn't hit the single digits yet, but we're trying to. It was a     10 or 11 all week. For those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle, the Magazine     section of yesterdays Sunday paper contained another well done article on the Eichler home     by Zahid Sardar, with some lovely photographs. Those photos really show how relatively     inexpensive it is to "remodel" an Eichler - bringing it back to its almost     original condition - and how well tasteful appointments and furniture of classic design,     or more recent contemporary design work so well in the home. Many of my past clients have     looked and found homes with that potential. These photos illustrate just why they did     quite well.

   

7-25-05. I wouldn't be surprised if we begin to show listings going down to     single digits. Even though we see about half of the current number - 12 - with increasing     days on the market (over a month), this market is active enough to generate sales on those     in time, and on the others more quickly. It really is warming up - temperature wise!

   

7-18-05. The warm weather slows things up a bit, as usual, and listings stay     around a bit longer with the exception of the the "exceptional" ones, but     activity still continues. It appears that my comments of last week could be repeated this     week. Tabulating the Eichler Market Data page gives some interesting insight into the     seasonality of this market place. If you look at the early weeks of the period being     covered this week, you'll see the reason why the total number of listings will continue to     grow until about the end of this month. When the last couple of months of a rolling 6     month period include December and January - with little activity - the total number should     peak.

   

7-11-05. It appears that the relative frenzy that accompanied the spring selling     season has abated, and we're into the more normal summer market. Unless the property is     outstanding in all respects, in particular location, it is staying around awhile longer     with the number of days on the market increasing. This climate will normally lead to a     softening of prices. We'll see. It seems we're hearing less talk about "the     bubble", and I think rightly so. Enjoy the warm weather!

   

7-5-05.The long weekend was a busy one for home buyers, with 3 of the listings     sold, but as is usually the case, no new listings were posted. It is interesting that many     if not most folks think of summer as a busy time in the real estate business, but it     usually is not. Too much else going on, including vacations, and those that are moving to     find new school districts have already made that move. The Eichler Market Data page now     shows 122 homes in the Active, Pending and Sold statuses. That number will likely continue     to grow for 3 or 4 more weeks, then begin to decline as we enter the slowest 6 months of     the real estate market. That's the time that usually benefit home buyers. We'll see if     that happens this year!

   

6-27-05 It does appear that we are in the seasonal transition time - from a     hectic spring to a less hectic summer. While certain new listings still go quickly, many     listings are hanging around longer, and a few even undergo a price reduction or withdrawal     from the market. However, as long as the mortgage interest rates remain at this 40+ year     historical low, the activity seems to continue at a level a bit higher than summer     "normal".

   

6-20-05. There is not much new to comment on this week as we approach the     "first day of summer. I know we all are looking forward to some warm days and     sunshine. "Spoken as a true Californian, Ditto!"

   

6-13-05. Pardon the delay in getting the Eichler Market Summary updated and up     and running. Computer operator error - namely me - but it's all fixed now. We're now up to     105 on that list. The national media seems fixated with the real estate "bubble"     doesn't it. While home prices have indeed advanced nicely during the recent past, the     speculative activity in Florida and Las Vegas really has gotten their attention. As you've     undoubtedly heard by now, if you are not a speculator - but a home buyer - not     investor/speculator, there is little to be concerned about, in particular in silicon     valley. Remember, average Eichler prices that fell during the 2000 "dot-com"     bubble - around 10-15% - made up their ground in a couple of years. Now, they are     considerably higher. God Bless Silicon Valley!

   

6-6-05. We wound up what I think is the busiest time of the real estate year -     February through May - with a good week of activity. We'll see if that view holds up     throughout the summer. Speaking of that, I plan to delete these summary comments for the     period prior to these last 12 months. For those of you that retain them - (thank you,     that's a compliment) - if you haven't already transfered or printed those months, please     do so before next weekend. They'll be gone after that. Have a good week and enjoy the     warmer weather!

   

5-31-05. Hope you had a nice holiday! Well, we're closing out a busy month by     reducing that "healthy inventory" of Eichlers by about 50% from a couple of     weeks ago. Even though the frenzy has definitely abated, the nice well priced homes still     find their buyers quickly. While the low interest rates have always been thought of as an     impetus of this seller's market, without question, being able to secure a 30 fixed     mortgage around 5.3% is now a major driving force. I hope the folks that found an interest     only loan attractive at a lesser percentage, really look at the current fixed rates.     They're approaching the rates that returning WWII vets were offered with their GI Loans!     And that's when the early Eichlers were priced around $9,000!

   

5-23-05. The inventory took a healthy jump during the past week, virtually     doubling from a couple of weeks ago. This seems to happen often during the last weeks of     spring. I suppose that folks that have been thinking of selling their home have seen some     rather dramatic price increases, and decide to join the fray. In the past, this inventory     increase during the late spring cycle has usually signaled a moderation of buying frenzy,     and ultimately prices. We'll see if that happens this time. That healthy inventory     increase of 14 homes brought the total homes shown on the Eichler Market Data page to 93.     It will be into the 100's before a cyclical peak occurs.

   

5-16-05. Much the same kind of activity last week as the week before. 4 or 5 new     listings, and the same number of sales. We're staying at roughly 15 listings for several     weeks now. Local and national news reporters keep the commentary coming about the     overheated real estate market. When you see all the ads appearing in local newspapers     promoting the concept of making a quick fortune with "no money down", be     careful! Remember, like politics, real estate is very, very local. What may work in     certain areas of the country, may not work in others. The same goes for "market     conditions". Booms, busts or bubbles in one area - city, county, state or regional     area - won't necessarily apply to your or other areas.

   

5-9-05. Maybe the rain will really end this week. When you've lived in     California as long as I have, this late spring and late rain gets to you. Anyway, there's     little new on which to comment. The spring market still has a few weeks to go, and buyers     and sellers are still taking advantage of this busy season. A bit fewer sales occured last     week -6-, and even fewer - 5- sales occured. One week does not make a market or trend!

   

5-2-05. Another busy week in the spring real estate market. 7 or 8 new listings     appeared and another 7 or 8 were sold. A very typical "DOM" for those that were     sold. Around 10 to 12 "days on the market", really means a rather instant sale.     Here's why. An agent or broker puts the home on the multiple listing service, "day     zero", usually 2 or 3 days before real estate agents/brokers tour the property. In     todays market, sellers wish to have the home exposed to the public - and more potential     buyers with Open Houses - which takes another 2 or 3 days (sometimes more). Offers, and     again, today there are usually more than 1, are heard 2 or 3 days later, giving time for     the buyers and their agents to put one together and present it to the seller. It may be     accepted then, or a bit later if counter-offers are appropriate, and then - the     agent/broker notifies the MLS of the sale. As you can see, all of that takes around 10     days - plus or minus a couple - for a typical "instant sale".

   

4-25-05. I still see the plateau forming - selectively. You've recently seen a     few price reductions in the Eichler marketplace, and in the market in general. As a rule,     those reductions may not have happened a couple of months ago. But now, as is the case in     "normal" markets, homes that suffer from poor location, busy streets, or of     course prices that worked earlier in the spring, are not being snapped up as they once     were. Homes that do not suffer from any of those weaknesses still enjoy a lot of interest     - and usually offers.

   

4-18-05. Well the beat goes on, but the DOM (days on the market) begins to inch     up, bringing the total listings up to 17, the highest in several months. It may well be     that the market in general is approaching a plateau - taking a breather - and that would     be quite healthy for everybody, in particular for home buyers. There's nothing like     consolidating gains to establish prices for home sellers and buyers.

   

4-11-05. My oh my, and the beat goes on. During my update of the Eichler Market     Data page last weekend, I couldn't help but shake my head - on behalf of Eichler home     buyers! 4 of the 6 new Eichler listed last week were priced in excess of $1,000,000, and     to top that off, one of the pending sales that was listed for $1,195,000, actually sold     for $1,425,000. On a different note, those of you living or interested in an Eichler     designed by Jones and Emmons will find the current May 2005 issue of Architectural Digest     interesting. It features a cover and story of a home designed by A. Quincy Jones for the     screen legend Gary Cooper. Located in the Holmby Hills area of Los Angeles, the home     features the clean lines, expanse of glass and open space that Mr. Jones incorporated in     his designs for Mr. Eichler.

   

4-4-05. Last week was simply more of the same. Hard to "read any tea     leaves" about the market other than it continues on its spring pace. There are no     signs that homebuyers are slowing down because of the rising interest rates. And there are     no signs that home sellers are coming onto the market timidly. While the home search     services I subscribe to indicate list price reductions from time to time, no Eichler list     prices have been reduced this year in order to affect a sale.

   

3-28-05. Sure wish it would stop raining! While its way to early to project a     change, I see a couple of things happening in our marketplace. Listings are staying around     a bit longer - more "days on the market" (DOM) than we've been experiencing     lately, and even though not in the Eichler marketplace, some listings are having price     reductions occur. Again, \ while certainly early, and perhaps just a "blip" it     would be nice for homebuyers to see a bit of a return to "normalcy", if that     ever occurs. My thanks it those of you commenting on the new Eichler Market Data page. It     is being well received. You'll note I updated it over the weekend, with several Pending     and Sold properties updated.Have a great week!

   

3-21-05. If you have not as yet gone to the Eichler Market Data link, I     would encourage you to do so before you leave my site. The 36 Pending or Sold listings     that you will find there esssentially represent the slowest 6 months of sale activity that     we'll have all year. Under "normal" conditions, if we ever have that, it would     not be unusual to see a 6 month period from say, February to July incorporating double     that amount of sales activity. Will advancing prices slow down the number of sales? We'll     just have to wait to see.

   

3-14-05. Whether it's the sunshine, warmer weather or whatever, new listings     began to appear in our marketplace. Thank goodness. We'll hope for more of the same. An     economist and financial advisor, whose opinions I respect, recently made an interesting     comment about our silicon valley real estate market. He likens it to a secular, or long     term bull market in equities. Evidence has always pointed to advancing prices-a "bull     market"- with occasional corrections along the way. Our "trophy" area,     along with about 4 others in the country, enjoy that favorable description. If true, and     in my experience it is, both home buyers and home sellers benefit.

   

3-7-05. While the Eichler inventory has increased dramatically, percentage wise     i.e., from 3 to 5 - it is still at all time lows. Hopefully the lack of rain and some     continuing sunshine will prompt sellers to get going and put it on the market! For those     of you who are relatively new to my site, and the numbers I refer to, there have been     times during the past 12-13 years that the Eichler inventory has been in the 30's during     the busy time of the year - like now! Times certainly change, and the obvious investment     character of real estate versus common stocks, in addition to interest rates, et al, have     really been a major impetus to the change.

   

2-28-05. We're closing out the month with a remarkably low inventory - the     lowest I've seen this time of year in over 13 years. One home in Palo Alto, and 3     condominiums constitute our Eichler inventory! That is in a geographic area of about 7000     Eichler homes! The lack of inventory of homes in general is of course a major contributor     to rising prices, and with interest rates still at historic lows, the Seller market     continues.

   

2-21-05. Happy Presidents Day! Even though we had a relatively wet weekend, our     Open House at Wright Place in Palo Alto was bulging with visitors on both Saturday and     Sunday. A continuing sign of home buyer interest in Silicon Valley. And - a continuing     sign of home buyers being tuned in, for many asked the questions, "When are you     looking at offers, and do you have a disclosure package?" There's no question. It is     tough being a home buyer around here, in particular if you are a first time homebuyer.     But, believe me, while it is quite difficult now, it has been that way for many, many     years - actually decades. Not much of a consolation, but it is true.

   

2-14-05. And it does appear that the games are beginning. Activity over the     weekend included both sales and several new listings. Let's hope that the inventory of     Eichlers begins to provide homebuyers with a good selection. Prices will likely be on the     upswing as "spring" begins - it always seems to set the stage for the year.

   

2-7-05. The Super Bowl is over - "now let the real estate games     begin!" It certainly seems like it will very shortly. Newspaper articles appearing in     the San Jose Mercury News last Thursday, and in yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle may     give further impetus (if needed!) to home sellers in silicon valley, and encapsulate the     difficulties in being a home buyer around here. "You don't get much for a million     bucks in Silicon Valley" was the headline of the Merc's article, and the Chronicle's     article was what a million bucks will buy in areas other than our bay area. Let's just     hope that an increasing inventory of all homes, and Eichlers in particular will begin to     bring some sense of normalcy to our marketplace. Interestingly enough, the "million     bucks" reference is quite meaningful for Eichler enthusiasts as well. As of today, of     the 6 Eichlers currently on the market, 4 of them are priced over $1,000,000, and of the 2     that aren't, 1 will likely sell for more than that amount, and the other may indeed     approach or exceed that mark as well. This spring should be very, very interesting!

   

1-31-05.The rain has stopped, at least for a while, we've come to the close of     the month of January, and the pace of real estate activity is beginning to pick up. New     listings are lasting about a week to 10 days - the length of time for an open house,     weekend ads, listening a evaluating offers - and bingo, they're sold. The same old song     continues to be sung. Home sellers continue to enjoy their good fortune, home buyers are     having to spend one. But - that simply is the silicon valley marketplace, with no apparent     change in the offing.

   

1-24-05. The "low hum of activity" continues as we get closer to the     "official" beginning of the real estate year around here. We'll likely see that     continuing for the next couple of weeks as we ramp up to a more active time. The silicon     valley marketplace, Eichlers included, will probably continue the pace that ended last     year, for there is seemingly nothing happening to change that. Interest rates continue to     be at record low rates, and even though you hear that they will be rising - and likely     will to a degree - the mortgage interest rates are still unbeliveably low, at 40 year old     levels and beyond. And the inventory, while beginning to increase is very, very thin. From     my perspective, different Eichler communities still have different levels of interest from     home buyers, but all of the areas certainly have enough to make home sellers pretty happy.    

   

1-18-05. A low hum of activity continues on this Martin Luther King holiday,     with it all coming during the latter part of the week. It is - the market - getting ready     though. I can tell by the number of all homes that are new listings, that are part of the     "Broker's Open House" tour schedule as they are first listed. Brr-rr-r! Sure is     cold around here this January.

   

1-10-05. Another relatively slow week, but 1 pending sale and a couple of new     listings provided a bit of a spark, wet weather or not. It is perhaps a bit odd to mark an     event or period by Super Bowl Sunday, nevertheless, that event, always in late January or     early February, seems to be the launch for the busy spring real estate season. If the     listings begin to occur in number before then - early February this year - that might     fortell an even busier spring for us.

   

1-3-05. Happy New Year! We begin the year in much the same mode as we left 2004     - as expected. If all holds as in the past, we will stay in this relatively quiet mode for     the next few weeks. Over the weekend, the real estate sections of our local newspapers     summarized the very active year that we just finished - saying much the same thing that my     weekly updates have been saying for some time. My forecast for 2005? Very much like 2004.

   

12-27-04. Trust your Christmas holiday was a joyous one! This week between     Christmas and New Years will be a slow one in the real estate business - but I'll keep     watching as usual. Those of you that take the SF Chronicle likely saw the article fronting     the Real Estate Section discussing our market during 2004. I'll abstract a couple of     thoughts/paragraphs. "During the late spring and early summer, those who plunked     "For Sale" signs on their front lawns enjoyed a close facsimilie of the 2000     frenzy, with all-out bidding wars and many contingency-free offers. But it was a tough     year for first time buyers. Amid concerns about rising interest rates and a flagging     economy, economists in 2003 had speculated that the U.S. and Bay Area housing markets     would sag in 2004. Instead, the nine-county region posted its best year ever, sailing past     the records of 2003 and the halcyon days of the Internet boom." Indeed that was the     case for the bulk of the year, and certainly the case for the Eichler home market.

   

Here's to another active year in 2005. All signs seem to point in that direction!

   

12-20-04. More of the same - not unexpectedly. 'Tis the time of year when we all     devote more time to family and friends, and the spirit of the season, and less to real     estate - as it should be! Have a wonderful week, and a glorious Holiday!

   

12-13-04. December activity inches along as per usual. A bit of activity but not     much. Yesterdays San Francisco Chronicle carried an extensive article about bay area real     estate. If you didn't see it you may wish to pick it up - at a newstand or on the web.     Three well know personalities/experts in the field give you their views on what has and     likely will be happening in the future. In general, it simply is more of the same - good     for home owners, and more impetus for home renters to become home owners. Easier said than     done around here! Stay warm.

   

12-6-04. Chilly weather around here, and an understandable chill slowing the     market. It's just the time of year! A couple of listings and a couple of sales, and the     inventory remains at an all time low. This time of year gives real estate agents and     brokers a time to "chill out", and that's exactly what's happening!

   

11-29-04. We're almost in December, and the listing activity - inventory -     really reflects that. Take a minute to scroll down and review my Monday commentary of a     year ago. As you'll see, we were enjoying an active market right up to Thanksgiving,     nonetheless, the inventory of Eichlers started the month of December at around a dozen,     far different than we have today. And for those of you that monitor the price levels, you     probably won't be surprised to hear that the prices are about 15 to 20% higher than they     were then. On and on it goes!

   

11-22-04. Well we've come off the almost zero inventory with some lovely new     listings. It will be interesting to see just how long they hang around. My prediction -     not long. A lovely fall real estate season, brisk and relatively free of rain is about to     end with our Thanksgiving holiday. We'll see if the normally slow winter season -     Thanksgiving to Super Bowl Sunday -follows the traditional pattern.

   

11-15-04. The Chief Economist and VP of the California Association of Realtors     spoke here recently, and a few of her comments will likely be of interest to you. As she     mentioned, "We can expect a strong finish to this year. Inventory is low (I'll say!),     and the buyers are still out there with low interest rate loans in their pockets. As in     former years, the market will slow its pace down while the public takes a break for the     holidays. The coming year will mimic this year but at a slightly slower pace. According to     several other economists, the market will heat up again to the pre-dot-com level in the     years 2006 and 2007, with the market turning in 2008 or 2009. CAR's Chief Economist     doesn't believe the market will "cool off" until 2012, acknowledging that that     may a bit too optomistic. It seems all do agree that we are in for a ride for the next     couple of years."

   

While it is the economists job to make predictions, the farther out they go, the less     accurate those predictiions. Suffice to say that near term, our bay area market is and     likely will continue to be a busy, busy area in real estate transactions.

   

11-8-04. Well, if there ever was a time to set records, this had to be the time.     There has never - repeat never, at least since 1992 - been a time when the Eichler     inventory has been lower than 3 homes in the market area I serve, San Jose to Burlingame.     Now there are 2. This has to be a commentary, in and of itself, about the silicon valley     real estate market, interest rates, state of the economy, and more. I have a sneaking     hunch that next springs market will be a barn burner of historical proportions. Great if     you're a seller - not so great if you haven't found one first!

   

11-1-04. And the diminishing inventory continues. To give you some perspective,     I keep careful track and report on some 9000 Eichler homes in my marketing area -     Burlingame to San Jose. And as of today, there are only 5 of those 9000 on the market. You     do the math! 'Tis a great time to be a seller - not so great if you are trying to buy one.     Here's a plug for Eichler Homes Realty - my clients bought one this weekend!

   

10-25-04. Well we are in single digits inventory shape as of the moment, and it     will likely continue that way for awhile. Two ways to look at that. A good time for home     sellers, for there are fewer homes from which to choose, but it can also be a good time     for home buyers, for homes can languish on the market during the upcoming winter real     estate season.

   

10-18-04. The rains have come, at least in a small way, but the fall selling     season still rolls along. We're almost down to single digits again. Incredible interest     rates and loan packages, and a very thin home inventory still keeps the home seller in a     very good position.